105 points bookofjoe 4 hours ago 174 comments

dlisboa 4 hours ago | parent

ADAS + human driver seems enough to solve most of the shortcomings of both human and robot drivers.

Full self-driving doesn't strike me as necessary to prevent deaths.

jpcfl 4 hours ago | parent

There is a moral hazard with ADAS + human drivers:

> Once drivers move from the novelty phase to the post-novelty operational phase, behavioral adaptation may begin to occur and overreliance and over-trust in the automation features potentially develop, including a greater willingness to look away from the forward road (as shown in the VCC data set). [1]

I'm not sure if this is more dangerous than strictly human-operated vehicles, but I would wager that it is more dangerous than strictly autonomous vehicles.

1. https://aaafoundation.org/research/understanding-the-impact-...

notahacker 3 hours ago | parent

I'm not sure why a semi autonomous system of equivalent driving capability would be more dangerous than strictly autonomous vehicles because of "over-trust" unless one assumes that the driver that overtrust the autonomous vehicles and looks away is also inclined to try to override the semiautonomous system whilst doing so. Humans overtrusting a system capable of imperfect Level 5 driving will certainly not be alert to correct all its errors, but on the other hand they should be capable of correcting more than the baseline (especially if the autonomous system is good enough at general driving under most conditions for the human driver to be restricted to "get me off this road train track or flood the system shouldn't have stopped in" and "follow instructions" type edge cases rather than misidentifying objects at high speed type edge cases.)

If there are additional problems caused by human drivers, it's surely that they are inclined to intentionally override the system with dangerous behaviours which is a separate problem entirely, or that their driving ability has atrophied so much from not driving they are unable to handle the boundaries of Level 4...

lazyasciiart 4 minutes ago | parent

Overtrust looks like people sleeping or not even bothering to stay in the front seats of the car. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-highway-patr...

semi-extrinsic 3 hours ago | parent

There was research some years ago in Sweden that cars with 4WD get into accidents 20% - 30% more often than cars with 2WD. And cars with 4WD averaged 10% higher speed at the moment of the crash.

The cause was found to be drivers with 2WD losing a little traction early in their drove and subsequently slowing down, while drivers with 4WD just kept driving like normal until they were suddenly off the road.

Another statistic is that intoxicated or otherwise impaired drivers cause more than half of all fatalities. So making a solution with machine learning and cameras that could retrofit into any existing car and just deny starting the car for such drivers, and having insurance companies cut premiums for having such gadgets installed, would be much more effective than any form of self driving or similar.

https://mb.cision.com/wpyfs/00/00/00/00/00/3E/5A/A2/wkr0011....

ryandrake 42 minutes ago | parent

The gadgets would have to meet an impossibly low false-positive rate and they'd need to be mandatory and non-removable for this to be effective. Constantly impaired drivers won't voluntarily install the devices, and any non-impaired driver who is falsely prevented from using their car will get rid of the device and not care about the insurance discount.

Also, they really need to be able to detect the other really bad cause of impairment: mobile phone usage.

redwall_hp 4 hours ago | parent

Automatic braking alone is a huge deal: if you're a bit late in braking, you get a warning. If you go past that, brakes auto apply. When configured correctly, I don't even notice it's there 99.9% of the time...and the times I do I'm glad it's there, because the beep pulls you out of a momentary distraction.

The only problem is not every car on the road has it yet.

epgui 4 hours ago | parent

Anecdotally, the only times I've ever noticed these chimes and the auto-braking (even automatic rolling-up of windows), it was false positives, and it was mildly terrifying: for a brief and unexpected moment I was no longer in control of my vehicle. [Recent Honda Civic and Audi A3 models]

stephencanon 4 hours ago | parent

I've only had a couple weeks in rentals with automatic emergency braking, and was very nearly been rear-ended twice due to false positives. Anecdotal, and I'm sure they'll improve with time, but I would never allow the system I experienced anywhere near a car I owned. It was profoundly unsafe.

Terr_ 3 hours ago | parent

Assuming you're already stuck with such a vehicle, is there any benefit to a dashcam that captures the alert-noises to prove the that you, the driver, never chose to brake unsafely?

I realize this relies heavily on the questionable sanity and ethics of insurance companies. Even if they agree you aren't personally at fault, they'd probably just increase the premiums for everyone with that model, rather than sue the car manufacturer.

ozim 35 minutes ago | parent

Never hear of someone who was rear ended being liable. Guy behind should keep a distance that allows him reacting in time and he is responsible for keeping that distance.

The same for skiing you don’t have eyes on the back of your head, one behind you is responsible for not crashing into you.

In car you have rear mirrors but if you have something in front of you and breaking you are not going to look in the mirrors.

WalterBright 3 hours ago | parent

Some years ago, I was in a major crash. The traffic in front of me stopped, I braked hard and stopped in time, the truck behind me rammed me into the car in front. Nearly killed me.

Some time later, I was on a snowy road. The cars in front of me stopped, I stopped, and checked my rearview mirror. There was a truck, who clearly wasn't going to stop. I pulled off to the side, and he hit the car in front of me.

BobaFloutist 1 hour ago | parent

>was very nearly been rear-ended twice due to false positives

To be fair, if the cars behind you had automatic emergency braking you would be at much lower risk of getting rear-ended when there's a false positive.

dlisboa 4 hours ago | parent

> The only problem is not every car on the road has it yet.

Yep. ADAS should be mandatory like seat belts and airbags. A regulatory body should be able to come up with a minimum standard for it.

officeplant 3 hours ago | parent

>Automatic braking alone is a huge deal

Except I had to turn it off for my Ford E-Transit, because it will freak out at nothing. Sometimes it screams at me for cars that aren't even in my lane that suddenly slowed. Sometimes it misjudges a ripple in the crappy asphalt here as an obstacle I'm going to hit. There is a high chance its going to brake for no reason at all and cause an accident.

I left the warning system on, but I will never give it control over the brakes.

throw1234567891 3 hours ago | parent

Good news, everyone. Soon you won't be able to switch it off.

uuddlrlrbaba 3 hours ago | parent

Fords seem notorious for this but usually can be fixed. Have you tried driving it to a dealership and trading it in?

officeplant 3 hours ago | parent

Multiple times actually, lmao. Unfortunately its only worth $19,000 currently (sticker price of $67,000 three years ago)

Loughla 44 minutes ago | parent

Any time I crossed a bridge near me that is kind of steep and has a structure over it, the automatic braking engaged HARD. Like hard enough that I nearly caused accidents until I figured out how to turn it off.

Not great.

Denatonium 24 minutes ago | parent

Automatic braking can also be hazardous! In a front-wheel drive car, understeer is a fact of life. When you're approaching a bend in the road with your foot in the accelerator, you're going to be pointed at the guardrail, since the car's going to rotate around the bend when lift your foot off the gas. Now imagine you're driving a car with AEB and it slams on the brakes while you were lightly accelerating towards the guardrail, right before you were going to lift your foot off the gas. What was a perfectly routine curve just turned into complete loss of control, and there's a very good chance your car's going straight into the guardrail!

Even when it doesn't slam on the brakes, if you were concentrating on the road, those jarring beeps can just as easily break your focus on driving as they can break your focus on a distraction. I think it's better to avoid distraction by keeping cruise control off, and you can compensate for having human-level reaction time by following at a safe distance and staying in an appropriate gear or setting an appropriate level of regenerative braking to avoid mindlessly getting too close to the car in front of you.

I think that too often, driver assist features are being added to cars to compensate for the other features (like adaptive cruise control) that encourage drivers to mentally disengage from the task of driving. There's also the fact (well, opinion) that driving a car without electronic assists and nannies is fun and engaging (especially on back roads with the windows down and the radio up). Riding in an autonomous vehicle is just as dull as riding on public transportation, all while being less efficient, less social, and worse for the environment.

It would be interesting if we could somehow test how the reduction in crashes with the introduction of driver assists would compare with if we had just banned cruise control, introduced minimum visibility and minimum suspension stiffness standards, and mandated manual transmissions.

jeffbee 11 minutes ago | parent

This is the perfect expression of chronic windshield brain. If you are driving anywhere near the limits of dynamic stability on a public road, then you are already driving dangerously. Also, computerized stability control works better than 99.99% of human drivers.

MostlyStable 4 hours ago | parent

The problem with mostly-but-not-entirely autonomous is that humans will tend to treat it like entirely autonomous.

dylan604 3 hours ago | parent

It doesn't help when manufacturers call their mostly-but-not-entirely autonomous systems Full Self Driving

throw1234567891 2 hours ago | parent

A manufacturer.

AlotOfReading 4 hours ago | parent

An ADAS would be L4 if it was designed to be truly autonomous. If it's not designed to be truly autonomous, you have to somehow address the attention problem. Even a good attention monitoring system isn't sufficient, because people have the ability to appear superficially attentive by all external metrics, while not engaging with the driving task mentally.

The data to differentiate these levels is pretty limited for a variety of reasons, and the problem only worsens when you conflate AEB with ADAS as the IHS/IEEE do in this article rather than use an OEDR-based definition.

hoss1474489 3 hours ago | parent

I recently implemented OpenPilot for my vehicle and used it on a 9 hour road trip.

Due to the nuances of my vehicle, the built-in hands-on-wheel nag was still active and required (small) driver wheel inputs every 10 seconds to prevent the beeps. Just keeping both hands on the wheel was enough to pacify the nag. But this forced me to keep attention on the vehicle, more than OpenPilot's face direction detector. Anecdotally I am certain this kept me more engaged than if I could have gone hands off.

The net effect was I had more capacity to be aware of what was going on around me on the road, AND I didn't feel nearly as fatigued at the end of the drive. Keeping the car between the lines consumes a little bit of cognitive energy constantly, which compounds over a long drive. Freeing up that load allowed me to pay more attention to what was happening on the rest of the road. And the mental burden was still half as much--I felt like I had driven maybe 4-5 hours instead of 9.

I have some ideas for how I might disable the built-in nag, but I'm pretty sure doing so would make my car less safe. The current configuration might already achieve the safety maximum for ADAS based on front-facing cameras only.

It increases situational awareness while reducing fatigue, and I think that anything further I try to do will adversely affect one or both of those effects.

Junk_Collector 4 hours ago | parent

It could, but maybe not if your motto is, "Move Fast and Break Things."

Article is short on data instead referencing a bunch of aggregated IIHS studies.

bestouff 4 hours ago | parent

"Move fast and break things" looks obviously bad for an autonomous vehicle ...

anon84873628 4 hours ago | parent

Which autonomous vehicle company has that as their motto?

warkdarrior 3 hours ago | parent

Stop asking relevant questions! I have a narrative to push and you are getting in the way.

computomatic 1 hour ago | parent

Uber exited the autonomous vehicle race several years ago. AFAICT, largely because of this mismatch. Who's still in this area (in a serious way) that behaves like that?

n0us 4 hours ago | parent

Growing proof that PR for autonomous car companies has aligned on a strategy of painting you as a bad person if you want to drive your own car, and therefore you should pay them money to continue being a good person.

jjordan 4 hours ago | parent

There should be laws put in place to ensure drivers will always be able to drive their cars, if they choose, and also prevent insurance companies from skyrocketing your rates for doing so. This is IMO past due.

matchbok3 4 hours ago | parent

How selfish. Why should I, someone who wants a safer AV, subsidize those who are riskier drivers?

Extremely selfish.

gottorf 4 hours ago | parent

This happens in insurance all the time. Healthy people who eat right and exercise subsidize people with poor habits.

It appears to some degree that we as a society do not want risk priced optimally to each individual.

linkregister 3 hours ago | parent

It is understandable that you think this is the case as someone who is not above the age of 50. You will see that health and life insurance premiums rise precipitously once you reach certain milestones. Once you reach 90 years old, you will find that car insurance companies will discontinue your policy based on a single traffic ticket.

We replaced preexisting condition coverage with age-based tiered pricing. If you doubt me it's trivial to validate this using your state's ACA marketplace.

uuddlrlrbaba 3 hours ago | parent

Is this your first introduction to an insurance pool?

jedberg 4 hours ago | parent

Why? Insurance companies use detailed risk data. If they discover that letting you drive your own car is a much higher risk than an auto-drive, why should they not be allowed to account for that?

Insurance companies aren't political -- they charge for whatever costs more.

jjordan 3 hours ago | parent

Yes, I definitely trust insurance companies to do the right thing here.

jedberg 3 hours ago | parent

Car insurance companies have their problems, but pricing risk is not one of them.

We saw this before -- they used to charge people who lived in high crime areas more money. They had to stop because it turned out that those high crime areas also had a lot of poor people, so the government stepped in and stopped allowing pricing by zip code.

But the insurance companies weren't wrong about the risk -- those customers cost them more. So instead they had to raise everyone's rates to account for the fact that they (rightly) could not discriminate.

I suspect the same would happen here. That poorer people could not afford self driving, and they same anti-discrimination rules would apply.

salawat 3 hours ago | parent

>Insurance companies aren't political -- they charge for whatever costs more.

Insurance companies you are required to interact with by law are absolutely political.

jedberg 23 minutes ago | parent

I meant they aren't political in their pricing. They don't charge less or more for something because it is considered liberal or conservative.

iknowstuff 3 hours ago | parent

No there should not. Human drivers kill a million people every year. WW1 killed 15-22M.

intrasight 3 hours ago | parent

I agree with your first statement but certainly not with the second. Rates for human drivers should and will skyrocket. Individual states may try to push back with regulation but it won't succeed in the long-term

lefra 3 hours ago | parent

Rates for human drivers are currently at the correct level for insurance companies to pay for damage and make some profit.

If autonomous cars result in less damage than humans, their insurance price will be cheaper than human drivers, but there's no reason to raise the human rate at the same time, their accident rate should stay the same.

mossTechnician 3 hours ago | parent

They have a reason: profit.

FeloniousHam 2 hours ago | parent

This is testable. The profits of car insurance companies should rise (let’s say substantially) in real dollars as accident payouts decrease as a result of the inevitable dominance of autonomous vehicles.

intrasight 2 hours ago | parent

I don't think you're seeing the future trajectory. Autonomous cars and trucks will be able to do their thing with a much smaller margin for error - because they don't make errors. So for example instead of two seconds distance to the car in front of you it will be 0.1 second. The vast majority of humans would have an accident as soon as they got on the road.

We need that increase volume and reduced accident count in order to grow without having to build more roads.

structural 27 minutes ago | parent

Great, so when a deer jumps into the middle of the highway the size of the ensuing pileup is twenty times larger. I don't particularly think we should use technology to push efficiency to the point where a mechanical failure, a material failure, or an unexpected object cause much larger scale catastrophes than exist today.

Why not aim for the same distance between cars and twenty times more safety instead?

jjordan 3 hours ago | parent

Why should they skyrocket? As more autonomous vehicles appear on the roads, incidents with non-autonomous vehicles will go down. Driving will become inherently safer.

alecbz 3 hours ago | parent

In the long-long-term, self-driving will get good enough and people will be relying on it so thoroughly that allowing people to drive on their own, with barely any practice, will probably be more risky than it's worth. In say, idk, 100 years (probably sooner), I doubt people will be able to drive their own cars in the way they do today.

SR2Z 42 minutes ago | parent

The overwhelming majority of bad driving is caused by alcohol and other drugs, drowsiness, and inattentive driving.

Sober, well-rested human beings who pay full attention to the road are surprisingly good drivers, to the point where I'm not actually sure that robotaxis can reliably beat them yet.

Yeah, a hundred years from now fewer people will drive themselves, but considering how many people DESPISE driving and only do it because it's required of them, that isn't bad.

linkregister 3 hours ago | parent

Incumbent rent-seekers want regulatory capture to insulate them from externalities. Dog bites man.

pessimizer 3 hours ago | parent

The law put into place would be that the people who put autonomous cars on the road would risk their freedom and safety just as much as a driver if that car causes an accident through their neglect.

This will never happen, because the entire purpose of the corporate structure is to avoid responsibility.

raincole 3 hours ago | parent

There should be laws taxing people who insist on driving themselves. And the money should be used to subsidize people who switch to self-driving or install automatic assisted systems on their old cars. That'd partially mitigate the externality generated by human drivers.

bluGill 3 hours ago | parent

How about prison for attempted murder?

I've lost enough friends to drivers who made a mistake. If self driving is better in just that, but worse every other way: I'm for it.

That might be a big if above, but of true them I support it. Drive on a private track or a video game if you must. Leave the real world to safe.

matchbok3 4 hours ago | parent

The knee-jerk conspiratorial reactions to new technology is depressing to see on HN. Do better.

nancyminusone 3 hours ago | parent

If your knee is just now jerking, you've got a problem with your reflexes. Discussions like this have been happened for 15+ years.

BoingBoomTschak 3 hours ago | parent

Yeah, it's just "new technology". Like those Flock cameras, I guess.

SR2Z 47 minutes ago | parent

Do you care to elaborate further or would you like to just join the nebulous cynicism club and keep on making irrelevant comparisons?

devilsdata 34 minutes ago | parent

The promise of tech has been that if we let it rip, we'll have a better democracy and living conditions for all. That promise has failed to materialise, for a variety of reasons. There is increased surveillance, enshittification, huge subscription fees, and upward pressure on climate change (directly linked to bitcoin mining then AI data centres). Then you get Musk lobbying against a city's plans to build a public transport network, so he can build an unsafe single-car tunnel for the rich.

I think people are quite justified in being skeptical of new technology, especially when the track record has shown that the promised societal benefits often never actually materialise. Worse, still, the money earned from selling the new technology is used to make conditions worse for most people. Big tech has a lot to answer for.

I'd be less skeptical if the values of tech capitalism shifted to become more pro-human. They really haven't, and they probably won't. So for now, consider me bearish on new tech.

bko 4 hours ago | parent

Growing proof that comment sections from tech forums have been overrun with unhelpful negativity unrelated to the actual posts they're commenting on.

ThrowawayTestr 3 hours ago | parent

This place is basically Reddit now

entropi 3 hours ago | parent

You are dismissing this as "unhelpful negativity", but are not addressing in any way the obvious (and rather malicious, I would say) PR play that parent comment points out.

This is exactly the message, and I for one welcome the anti-cool-aid sentiments being very visible in public spaces.

SR2Z 3 hours ago | parent

Can you actually define what the kool-aid is here? Because AV companies are saying "look at this new product, it objectively drives better and safer than a human, you don't have to deal with a human driver, it works 24/7, and in our experience most people prefer it to driving."

I have NEVER seen a single person accuse anyone of being a bad person for still preferring to drive a car manually. Not once, not even the usual one or two crazy people you can find to support almost any other crazy statement.

Where is the kool-aid from the robotaxi side that's so visible? Keep in mind that "kool-aid" implies that something is factually incorrect.

BoingBoomTschak 3 hours ago | parent

> I have NEVER seen a single person accuse anyone of being a bad person for still preferring to drive a car manually

Just read further in this thread, will you?

SR2Z 49 minutes ago | parent

Yeah I have. I still don't see it, I do see a lot of unwarranted cynicism and extremely sloppy arguments against these cars.

quadrifoliate 3 hours ago | parent

> "look at this new product, it objectively drives better and safer than a human, you don't have to deal with a human driver, it works 24/7, and in our experience most people prefer it to driving."

A lot of these are true about other things like pedestrian-friendly streets, bike lanes, and mass rail transit. The kool-aid is that the robotaxi people act like they are the first one to solve this problem.

thereisnospork 2 hours ago | parent

"everyone" still drives -- the problem has very much not yet been solved.

Could it be solved in other ways? Sure, but it hasn't. Why it hasn't is an interesting question but that's out of scope.

SR2Z 50 minutes ago | parent

No, dammit.

Pedestrian friendly streets are great! You can't walk that far, and I love walking places when I have time and energy.

Bike lanes are great! I bike to work. If I'm not careful I'll arrive sweaty, and that inherently limits when and where I bike.

Mass rail transit is great! It cannot get directly to every door or frequently even to within walking distance of every door (I take a train to the office when I don't wanna bike).

I really do understand that it's trendy to hate on cars. There are a lot of bad things that come with car dependence.

All of that is true AND YET cars make us more productive and allow us to do things that would be impossible otherwise.

Robotaxi companies are not trying to replace any of those things. That makes no sense because they don't need to do that to succeed.

So I will ask again: what is the kool-aid that I'm supposedly drinking?

jasode 3 hours ago | parent

>the obvious (and rather malicious, I would say) PR play that parent comment points out.

The author Lawrence Ulrich references research from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Why would it be "obvious" that they are paid PR shills for Tesla/Waymo?

I'm jaded and cynical so I can accept that they may be secret PR mouthpieces but isn't it reasonable to expect a little evidence rather than just throwing out a random accusation?

cucumber3732842 3 hours ago | parent

IIHS works for the insurance industry who will happily throw you under the bus if it makes things more predictable on their side. Not better, not lower claims, more predictable.

The alignment between what is good for you and good for the interests they answer two is not all that much.

But of course, they work very hard to market themselves as peddlers purely of safety, after all only a barbarian would be against safety <mockingly clutches pearls>

This isn't to say that some people they don't care, but giving a crap isn't gonna change the incentives.

Apocryphon 1 hour ago | parent

How do using autonomous vehicles benefit their claims-settling? Wouldn't it make it unpredictable- in an accident between two self-driving vehicles, who is liable? What if both vehicles are from the same company? Doesn't this lead to extreme variability?

throwaway198846 1 hour ago | parent

Whould they? If things are too predictable they would be out of job.

bko 3 hours ago | parent

Saying an article is just PR, without addressing the specific article is not helpful.

Argue how the author was funded by such and such a group with ties to this other group. Say something about the methodology used. Say literally anything about the actual post.

This would be the equivalent of me just calling you a "shill" with no other context. The burden of proof is on you since you're making the claim that this is misleading PR.

parapsychic 4 hours ago | parent

Reminds me of that scene from I Robot where Will Smith was not supposed to drive his car himself.

4d4m 3 hours ago | parent

Didn't this just happen in an internet company's self driving car with couple kidnappings in the past month? (They were done according to the companies terms of service is what the internet company says if I remember reading correctly)

vagrantJin 4 hours ago | parent

Thats too much of an honest assessment. An age old playbook. I'd like the tech do actually do things that are hard for me, like taking control of the car in a high stress situation. Sub-milisecond reactions to correct for a mistake. Something, anything more useful than a fancier cruise control.

dmurray 3 hours ago | parent

Your car does that already. It has a superhuman braking system that saves a lot more lives than cruise control, though not quite sub-millisecond in its reaction time.

CM30 3 hours ago | parent

Yeah, and it should not be understated how bad only having autonomous cars would be for privacy and security conscious folk.

A lot of the time you don't own them, so they're operating on the terms provided by the companies and government, even when it's directly against your own interests. The idea of a car that can't drive certain places, be used at a certain time or be used by certain people feels like a terrifying inevitability, and one which society should refuse at all costs.

If you drive your own vehicle, it goes where you want it to go. If you don't drive your own vehicle, it goes where a company or government wants it to go.

SR2Z 3 hours ago | parent

So you mean to tell me that when I called a Waymo a few weeks ago at 1AM because I was drunk at a bar and wanted to go home, it was actually because my government and Google wanted me to go home?

Woah! This conspiracy goes deeper than I thought! Next you'll tell me that a taxi ride requires mutual consent between me, the taxi driver, and the dispatch company!

tqi 3 hours ago | parent

"If you drive your own vehicle, it goes where you want it to go"

I think privacy conscious folks like yourself consistently overrate how much purchase this argument has. I am perfectly happy to forgo this in exchange for a sufficient increase in convenience / safety (for myself and others). This is not because I have been brainwashed by autonomous vehicle company propaganda, it is because I have different values and concerns.

foobarian 3 hours ago | parent

But.. what if it's true? It's like not wearing a seat belt, or smoking, or drinking while driving. If AV are widely available it becomes similarly opt-in high risk behavior.

entropi 3 hours ago | parent

Using SUVs are definitely worse for safety as well, and it does not require a huge overhaul of the transportation infrastructure, a few new technologies to be invented, replacing ~all the existing cars, etc. etc. But no-one takes the comparatively basically free steps to remove/reduce SUVs.

Lets not forget that its all about the profits, and if we truly want to save lives there are more cost-efficient ways than what some tech sales-people peddle.

WillPostForFood 3 hours ago | parent

<posted from phone while driving through red light>

atleastoptimal 3 hours ago | parent

You cannot deny the evidence though, driverless cars are safer per-mile than human drivers on average. 1/100 deaths in the United States are due to car accidents, even shaving off 10% of those would save ~4000 people per year.

4d4m 3 hours ago | parent

Thanks for clearly stating the danger - your point is reasonable

tikhonj 3 hours ago | parent

If driving is dangerous and carries a bunch of negative externalities, shouldn't we expect "good people" to look for alternatives? Not self-driving cars, necessarily, but maybe transit and walking and biking.

And, of course, to support the policy choices that reduce how much we subsidize driving and improve infrastructure for those alternatives.

dzhiurgis 3 hours ago | parent

Tesla did something sneaky just few days ago. They added crash avoidance even when FSD is not enabled, but purchased. So in future if they add pay-per-mile option (great for road trips) you'll likely still keep paying for monthly since it offers additional protection even if you prefer driving yourself (which is lol).

Kiro 3 hours ago | parent

Your us vs them mentality regarding cars is really strange. You've previously said you think bicyclists are the "worst people".

sp1nningaway 2 hours ago | parent

I hadn't thought about it like this, but I think I want the grassroots version of the PR campaign. Society was finally able to rein in smoking when we collectively realized how dangerous secondhand smoke is. People who smoked indoors and exposed loved ones to an early death weren't bad people, but creating societal pressure to feel bad about doing that has saved a lot of lives.

You are more likely to kill someone driving your huge SUV than you are taking a Waymo. Driving your own car certainly doesn't make you a bad person, but I hope self-driving cars will be ubiquitous and safe in the future. When that happens, choosing to drive yourself will be a selfish act, just like exposing people to secondhand smoke is now.

structural 32 minutes ago | parent

At a systems level, transportation is something we have to be very, very careful about, because if you get it wrong, you start excluding entire groups of people from being a functional part of your society just because they are different from you in where and how they live.

"When that happens, choosing to drive yourself will be a selfish act, just like exposing people to secondhand smoke is now." Really? I drive on logging roads a few times a month to get to some property. This is pretty sketchy even in good conditions and there's always the chance of getting stuck and having to hike a mile or two the rest of the way up to go get the tractor and sort it out. I'm probably not buying a self-driving car any time soon, if ever.

Now, is having self driving taxis a fantastic idea in a very dense city? Of course. There's huge benefits in keeping the average car as safe, efficient in both energy and pollution, and highly utilized as possible. Are these also a good retrofit to dense-ish suburbs where a bus/rail network isn't quite enough (and the costs to build it in already-developed land are unpalatable)? Also yes. But that's not ubiquitous, that's just part of a larger system that needs to be able to serve all users.

And if your point is that "move out of the mountains and into a city because that's the less-selfish option"... that's a certain kind of political statement, I guess.

twobitshifter 1 hour ago | parent

Many boomers hated antilock brakes, but insurers gave discounts for having them on your car anyway. I think it’s likely going to be a similar thing with self driving.

Even today, I don’t like the intrusiveness of the insurance monitors you can install on your car today and I am willing to forgo that discount to keep my privacy.

dghlsakjg 4 hours ago | parent

Is there a standard that these cars have to meet?

Really there should be an obstacle course of some kind based on the most common anomalies leading to accidents. Partially obscured road signs, worn paint markings, obscured sight lines caused by dense parking, driving on a snowed over surface, etc.

throwup238 4 hours ago | parent

If it’s anything like my San Francisco DMV driving test, they did a loop around Fell and Oak St (both one way streets with no opposing traffic).

I passed because I didn’t kill anyone in the span of eight blocks.

margalabargala 4 hours ago | parent

While I would like to see that just for the data, from a regulatory standpoint all we really need are the manufacturers being liable in a crash if their cars were driving. The insurance savings of their cars being safer will create the incentive they need.

iknowstuff 3 hours ago | parent

Real world data results are so much more important than an obstacle course to overfit for.

AlotOfReading 3 hours ago | parent

There's no legislated standard in the US, nor pre-sale verification that a vehicle has met most of the other automotive standards. That's just not how the US regulatory environment works.

There's the beginnings of a standard for L2/L3 vehicles in Europe, and ongoing discussions about what L4 standards could look like, but neither addresses "adversarial" situations.

Animats 1 hour ago | parent

China is going for what's sometimes called "L3.5" - hands off wheel, eyes off road, driver may have to take over if alerted, but if the driver doesn't, the vehicle must safely stop and pull over if possible.

The trouble with "driver assistance" systems is the handoff to the driver. That's not reliable. Results from the aviation community indicate that it takes about ten seconds after an autopilot disconnect before the pilot has stable control of the aircraft. "L3.5" accepts that. The < 2 second response required by some L2 systems does not.

32ahgf 4 hours ago | parent

So can 100% public transport, non-autonomous. But there is less lobbying money for award winning journalists.

throw1234567891 2 hours ago | parent

And trucking. But jobs.

Robotbeat 48 minutes ago | parent

That’s a really difficult problem to solve with the built environment being the way it is. Buses get the closest, but to make it usable at times other than rush hour, they have to run empty or nearly empty, which drives the cost very high (although this is often hidden by subsidies). The way to deal with low density transit is automation.

devilsdata 37 minutes ago | parent

I can not imagine that the cost of busses can ever approach the cost of the equivalent amount of cars (for the same amount of passengers).

Robotbeat 33 minutes ago | parent

It is, at least in a place like LA. Fares are like less than 10% the actual total cost of an average bus ride. https://www.reddit.com/r/LAMetro/comments/1orftnt/should_you...

Now if you’re ONLY serving high density and high passenger volume times, buses are incredible.

devilsdata 25 minutes ago | parent

Is your point that busses aren't profitable? Why do they need to be?

I am sure if you did the math, having the occasional empty bus does not hold a candle to the amount of dead mass being dragged along in single-occupant cars.

The wear-and-tear on the road from the sheer volume of cars alone makes them cost more to us as a society than busses.

So regardless of density and passenger volume, busses are incredible.

zamadatix 24 minutes ago | parent

It's also easier to do shared housing but part of it is just that people like having their own personal dedicated space to exist in even if it's not the most efficient answer.

danieldevries 4 hours ago | parent

Of course. This seems so obvious.

More sensors with 360 degrees. Faster reaction time. Constantly improving, be it from real world data or from a simulated environment. Zero fatigue. No emotion evolved. No drugs are alcohol in the system.

Fyi. Long robotaxis.

raincole 4 hours ago | parent

Isn't it... quite a well known thing?

derbOac 3 hours ago | parent

The articles I've read on this have said it's murky because of obfuscation of reported data by self-driving companies.

The target article even notes that "while Waymo leads the industry in transparency, and robotaxi operators are required to report even the tiniest scrape to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), not every company voluntarily reports their total miles driven."

My sense is that there's a lot of massaging the data by autonomous car companies to make their data look good. The article and a linked article describes the comparisons as "human drivers in the same driving conditions" which is kind of vague to me and isn't the same as, say, taxi drivers to robotaxis. It's also robotaxis and not general driving conditions etc.

I always feel like these comparisons become murky in other ways. For example, if autonomous vehicles have lower accident rates in general, but fail in catastrophically bad ways when they do fail — ways that would never happen with a human driver (for example, by inexplicably driving into an avoidable semi trailer for no reason, killing the occupants) — is that better? What if you eliminate cases where the driver is intoxicated? Aren't those cases cases of malfeasance at some level, that could apply to autonomous vehicle use? Do you hold autonomous vehicle companies accountable for deaths, charging executives with manslaughter? How should we think about accountability versus safety?

I'm not trying to argue against autonomous vehicles. I just feel like these types of published discussions get oversimplified often in a way that seems to parallel similar discussions of AI in general, and seems sympathetic to their adoption rather than a rigorously skeptical appraisal.

paulnpace 3 hours ago | parent

They can also massage the numbers by only driving on the safest roads, then making a comparison based solely on miles driven.

The comparisons I've seen are with the general population, not professional drivers. How might that comparison look, since this is a paid service?

watwut 4 hours ago | parent

I was reading about autonomous cars being better then people 6 years ago ... along with cries about the cars are treated unfairly.

fierycatnet 3 hours ago | parent

I have a feeling that once everything goes EV and autopilot, they will start phasing out regular cars or will make it more difficult to obtain the license.

paulnpace 3 hours ago | parent

Also, the autonomous car companies will have their vehicles coordinating to make it difficult for humans to drive, such as holding a long convoy with close following distance in a single lane.

jillesvangurp 33 minutes ago | parent

This will be a gradual process. But probably getting a drivers license will become a lot less common for people over time. There won't be any need once cars drive themselves.

Insurance and liability become a lot simpler if you just don't touch the controls at all. There will be a clear split between people who don't drive and therefore are not liable and the remaining group that still drives and is causing most of the remaining accidents (and cost for insurers). That's going to inevitably get more scrutiny from everybody: insurers, authorities, occupants of self driving vehicles, other manual drivers.

This will probably be insurance driven. If you don't need to drive anymore, you don't actually need a license. And if you are not driving, you can't be held liable for damage caused by your vehicle. You'll still need insurance to cover any damage/harm your vehicle might cause but this will likely be quite cheap given autonomous cars are safer and on average don't really get involved in accidents. It's quite possible that eventually just gets folded into warranty terms for your car and covered by the manufacturer.

As manually driving increasingly becomes a choice rather than a necessity, your insurance for that might become conditional on you being current and proficient in the same sense that licensed pilots need to regularly do check rides to verify they can still safely operate a plane. Additionally, insurers might insist on you passing a regular health checks to verify that you are still fit enough to drive. Some countries already test elderly drivers but there are lots of elderly people with pretty serious health issues passing these tests as well. Expect this to get a lot more strict.

fierycatnet 4 minutes ago | parent

Yes, I'm thinking the same, good write up.

archagon 21 minutes ago | parent

I think the vast majority of voters will have something to say about that.

WalterBright 3 hours ago | parent

I'll be sad when I'm forced to give up driving my old cars.

bryanlarsen 49 minutes ago | parent

You're old enough that isn't a worry for you. If your grandkids have cars as a hobby they might have to use a track rather than public roads.

ks2048 3 hours ago | parent

In the modern USA, "saving lives" is anti-correlated with policy, so let's see how this plays out.

BoingBoomTschak 3 hours ago | parent

The article sensibly asks if the (intentionally or not) cherry-picked stats about automated driving (fair weather only, limited to specific areas that aren't especially difficult) is valid then cites a study that really massages those stats in a dubious way (e.g. only counts as a crash if the airbag triggered, no mention of weather). Hmmm...

Another thing I'd really like to know: let's suppose that these are indeed safer than the average driver. Is it also the case for the median driver?

SoftTalker 1 hour ago | parent

Growing proof that driving attentively, sober, not playing with your phone, and not speeding saves lives. Actually, we've known that for a long time.

alexpotato 1 hour ago | parent

The most likely scenario at this point it:

- autonomous cars cause fewer accidents

- so either insurance will be cheaper for them

- AND/OR human driving car insurance goes up

- even if only one happens, the relative cost of insurance will change in favor of autonomous

- driving your own car becomes a kind of "prestige" thing where only really wealthy people do it (similar to owning your own plane etc)

ceejayoz 55 minutes ago | parent

> so either insurance will be cheaper for them

lol

jdm2212 48 minutes ago | parent

Insurance will just be bundled with the self-driving car software. Insurance and car are separate today because driver and car are separate today. Once they're the same, there's lots of money to be saved by bundling the sale.

alexpotato 39 minutes ago | parent

> Insurance and car are separate today because driver and car are separate today.

This is an excellent point.

Someone 35 minutes ago | parent

That already is happening. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car_liability:

In 2015, Volvo issued a press release claiming that Volvo would accept full liability whenever its cars are in autonomous mode.

[…]

Starting in September 2023 in the United States, Mercedes-Benz takes liability for the Level 3 Drive Pilot as long as the "user operates Drive Pilot as designed," but "the driver must be ready to take control of the vehicle at all times when prompted to intervene by the vehicle."

GolfPopper 30 minutes ago | parent

And the wage slaves lose even more freedom and autonomy.

jeffbee 14 minutes ago | parent

Waymo is already self-insured so if they have an advantage it's already on their balance sheet. In California nobody is going to get a discount for having ADAS software because we encoded into the state law in the 1980s, part of a long magical thinking campaign by boomers, that insurance companies can't use that type of thing to set prices.

mostly_harmless 1 hour ago | parent

Fatality data is extremely skewed. 44% of drivers aren't using a seatbelt, 29% are speeding related, I recall alcohol involvement being about 30%, though it's not listed in the link I checked. About 20% of automobile fatalities aren't in cars but are pedestrians or bicyclists struck by cars (add another 16% if you want to include motorcyclists, though only half of which involve another vehicle). I recall the percentage of vulnerable road user deaths is much higher in urban areas.

(https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/fatality-statistics/deta...)

The majority of drivers are good, but some drivers are really bad. Life in USA is extremely car-centric and taking away a license is often infeasible and the offender usually drives without their license anyways. If anything, I'd like autonomous cars to give a legal out to remove bad drivers. You get a DUI, or commonly speeding? You may only take an autocar.

BugsJustFindMe 1 hour ago | parent

> "The majority of drivers are good, but some drivers are really bad."

I take issue with this. The majority of drivers are "mostly fine as long as circumstances are favorable", not "good". People for the most part do not even know about the concept of defensive driving let alone practice it. Even the best people are fundamentally complacent in basically everything they do. They zone out sometimes, they get too close, they don't always look where they're going. They don't get into more collisions because the world doesn't throw more obstacles at them, not because they're good at driving.

Retric 54 minutes ago | parent

Good here is in reference to the average crash statistics.

Most drivers are safer than the average, because you can’t go below 0 and some people are really bad.

ryandrake 50 minutes ago | parent

I know someone who's been at fault in at least 12+ car accidents, and she keeps driving (as someone else put it you almost have to drive in the USA). There are colossally bad drivers out there and we don't yet have a viable system for keeping them off the road.

GrinningFool 32 minutes ago | parent

How is she able to get insurance coverage?

BugsJustFindMe 25 minutes ago | parent

1) What makes you think she has insurance coverage?

2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science

BugsJustFindMe 38 minutes ago | parent

You cannot measure driver goodness (skill and vigilance) by looking at crash statistics, because crashes are definitively circumstantial. Most very clearly bad/dangerous/unskilled/unvigilant operations of automobiles do not lead to crashes.

seizethecheese 47 minutes ago | parent

I disagreed with you and went looking in the article for evidence (yeah bad, epistemologically). I actually found evidence for your point. The largest cause of fatal crashes is Generally distracted or "lost in thought" (daydreaming) at 64%. That happens to most people,.

bad_haircut72 46 minutes ago | parent

The people OP is talking about, the 0.05% absolute worst drovers, are not merely complacent, they're doing things like getting hammered and going street racing (shamefully I can say, I was 19 once...) or speeding away from crimes etc

edit: someone else replied with data contrary to this, maybe they are right but Im leaving this here to represent the counterargument

BugsJustFindMe 42 minutes ago | parent

It's a category error to say that everyone else are good just because they're not the worst you can imagine. It doesn't matter what your worst 0.05% do. It doesn't make most people actually good drivers.

ummonk 42 minutes ago | parent

The other reply doesn't contradict what you're saying. Someone who was street racing is going to tell the cops / insurance company that they were lost in thought.

binary0010 1 hour ago | parent

Yeah, there's a woman who is quite old and has a severe disability who drives regularly through our neighborhood who's car every few weeks has a new giant dent, missing fender, broken windshield, etc.

It's sad we don't have a better way for people in these situations to do what they need without driving. It will be incredible to have autonomous driving just for older and or disabled drivers like this.

Robotbeat 52 minutes ago | parent

I believe Tesla’s FSD is already better than such unassisted drivers. Particularly with the current FSD limitations which require monitoring driver attentiveness. If every drunk who attempted to drive was using FSD, deaths due to drunk driving would be virtually eliminated. Heck, even advanced lane keeping and smart cruise control from other manufacturers, while much more crude, would still help tremendously.

giancarlostoro 45 minutes ago | parent

> Life in USA is extremely car-centric

Mostly yes, but some states like NYC its more common to take trains, taxi cabs / Uber / Lyft, etc.

GrinningFool 31 minutes ago | parent

It says a lot that 3 of the 4 options you gave involve cars.

driverdan 23 minutes ago | parent

As much as people who live in NYC like to believe they're a state they're not, they're a city. Most of the state of New York does not have good public transit.

JoeAltmaier 20 minutes ago | parent

Pedantically true. By population density, NYC is essentially the whole state, or what matters anyway, to the huge majority of residents.

scotty79 15 minutes ago | parent

> The majority of drivers are good

Well, 80% of us believes ourselves to be above average, so there's that.

kevin_thibedeau 1 hour ago | parent

Didn't save Elaine Herzberg.

JoeAltmaier 52 minutes ago | parent

We'll have arrived at the automated transit network when they stop putting up road signs. The cars know where they are, and how to get there. Signs are for fallible ignorant humans.

anon7725 47 minutes ago | parent

> The cars know where they are

not if they're in a tunnel or a highrise canyon, or there is weather-related interference, or the maps have not been updated to reflect reality, or there is a detour for construction, etc.

cbondurant 46 minutes ago | parent

I'd much rather all of the resources that are going into autonomous cars was instead going into proper public transit infrastructure. Cars are so hopelessly space and energy inefficient, and I hate driving them. If I could get around by bus, light rail, bike, and all of the wasted city space devoted to parking could be turned into more housing and amenities, that would be great.

I think it would be meaningful to also compare the fatality rates of the time tested and proven forms of public transit to these self driving cars too.

ElijahLynn 42 minutes ago | parent

Public transit doesn't really go that far, when you talk about the last mile it's pretty limited.

But I do like what you're going with that and maybe we could have public autonomous car infrastructure that we all share. And just one large global team working on awesome autonomous vehicles. That could be little pod type vehicles for one person and bigger ones as needed. Cuz the road system is pretty broad and amazing right now.

marssaxman 39 minutes ago | parent

Rental scooters/bikes cover last mile service very well in my experience. I use transit a great deal more than I would if I had to walk so much on either end of the trip.

EA-3167 38 minutes ago | parent

Let me guess… you live somewhere warm and mostly dry? Probably on the younger side and don’t have any kids.

marssaxman 32 minutes ago | parent

Seattle, late middle age. Kid just started high school. My wife has a large e-bike with a passenger seat, but replaced it with a cargo basket a couple years ago after the kiddo outgrew it.

I didn't say that scooters were a solution for everyone, you may note. I don't think there ought to be one solution for everyone, but given the option of micromobility, I really have no use for autonomous vehicles.

vrosas 34 minutes ago | parent

Americans would rather die than give up their air conditioned bubbles on wheels. I've wondered why someone hasn't tried manufacturing an enclosed go kart with AC and enough trunk space for a few groceries.

alightsoul 32 minutes ago | parent

They are very popular in china, such as the Wuling ev. In America, they are afraid of them because they are small. They want big cars to have a large crumple area in a crash.

Zambyte 30 minutes ago | parent

And ideally enough mass to violently crush their neighbors.

marssaxman 20 minutes ago | parent

Regulation kills the value proposition. You are basically describing a "neighborhood electric vehicle", but US law limits them to 25 mph, and it is not legal to drive them on many arterials, so they are only really useful inside communities which were designed for them.

edgarvaldes 8 minutes ago | parent

>Rental scooters/bikes cover last mile service very well in my experience.

Not so great for family trips, shopping around, etc.

embedding-shape 38 minutes ago | parent

> the last mile it's pretty limited.

Where is that last mile exactly? In many metropolitan areas, you typically have available a broad selection of trains, subways, trams and/or buses of different sizes that takes you last mile. Some places even have special buses, like the "Neighbourhood Bus" we have here (https://www.barcelona.cat/mobilitat/sites/default/files/bcn-...) for narrow and steep neighborhoods up on mountains.

It's certainly doable, if you wanted to have last mile public transport.

SrslyJosh 36 minutes ago | parent

I think you need to re-read the parent comment, specifically this part:

> I'd much rather all of the resources that are going into autonomous cars was instead going into proper public transit infrastructure.

You're almost certainly an American, and you probably have no idea what public transit is like in countries that have been investing in it for decades instead of focusing 95% of their resources on infrastructure for cars.

Clamchop 5 minutes ago | parent

This is where I've always assumed things were going. People talk about one day owning a self-driving car but I look forward to the promise of not owning a car, never needing to buy, maintain, register, insure, or drive one. Not having to buy into a depreciating compromise, do I prioritize economy or seating or cargo or...? Gas, hybrid, electric? Not having to hunt or pay for parking.

Private cars are costly and spend most of their time just taking up space.

We'll see if it ever works out that way but a boy can dream.

jeffbee 16 minutes ago | parent

AVs and public transportation are not comparable. The cumulative lifetime investment in Waymo would not fund even half a year of capital expenses for the New York MTA, for example.

maxwellg 12 minutes ago | parent

We can have both. The resources aren't coming from the same bucket. Public transportation must be built by the local government, and is subject to that local government's ability to execute. In contrast, Self driving cars are largely siphoning resources from for-profit companies.

I live in the west side of San Francisco, and we may get a subway station by 2050 if we're exceptionally lucky. I'd rather have self-driving cars this decade, please.

lazyasciiart 10 minutes ago | parent

> Public transportation must be built by the local government,

Amtrak is public transportation. Airlines are pretty close to public transportation. Local government doesn't need to be involved.

jmward01 34 minutes ago | parent

It has been, from the start and even before FSD had any basis in reality and was just sci-fi stories, obvious that FSD would eventually get here. The only question has been when. We clearly aren't there yet but it is pretty obvious we aren't as far away as the naysayers make out.

I want FSD, but I want it on consumer terms. Safety is only one aspect and it is the one constantly brought up. It is important, but in the long term it will be solved and the more important things will remain. Concepts of privacy, ownership and access will be the real issues of the future and should be the most important discussions about FSD, and transportation in general, now. If we allow FSD to go the rout it appears it is going, car companies requiring you forfeit you privacy, subscriptions and not ownership and companies clearly demonstrating their first attempts at gating access by advertising where you should go and emphasizing where they don't want you to go, then the FSD future we are being led to is a dystopian mistake.

You may not believe FSD will ever get here but I think it is easy to see the direction car companies are pushing things. I am happy to see safety is being solved but I would rather see a major push towards a FSD future that is more like a 1950's space opera than a 2000's tech dystopia.

motoboi 27 minutes ago | parent

Autonomous vehicles don’t drive drunk. That alone will save millions worldwide yearly.

gwbas1c 23 minutes ago | parent

Looks like we're over the biggest engineering hurdles. I used to tell people we'd see self-driving cars take off in the 2030s, (with them generally starting to appear mid 2020s) and now this looks like the case.

goda90 2 minutes ago | parent

A vision of a possible future where capitalism might go with the rise of self-driving cars: https://youtu.be/040ejWnFkj0