141 points tosh 2 hours ago 111 comments

DeepYogurt 1 hour ago | parent

I always wanted to live through TWO pandemics! /s

tomashertus 1 hour ago | parent

Damn, I'm worried whether Russia’s response will prioritise containing the pathogen or containing the embarrassment. You can’t patch a public-health incident with a press release.

dozerly 1 hour ago | parent

Take a guess, will Putin prioritize the safety of humans or his own pride? He’s literally waging a war that is based on his warped divine feeling of pride for Rus

GolfPopper 1 hour ago | parent

Alternatively, that's just an excuse, and he's waging a war because the existential threat to his autocratic kleptocracy by even a modestly successful, somewhat democratic neighboring state with significant inter-country exchange of people and ideas.

bigmattystyles 1 hour ago | parent

Worse yet, this is contained but Putin will use it to argue against foreign actors weakening him further because 'think of the consequences`. I hate how paranoid this timeline has made me.

volkk 1 hour ago | parent

you should consume less internet -- will make you feel a bit better

mikrl 1 hour ago | parent

> I hate how paranoid this timeline has made me

Ever wonder what a country waging a grinding siege war could do with a plague lab?

That’s keeping me up. Threaten nukes and deploy the plague to show you aren’t kidding.

There was a news story yesterday about the Ukrainian government using drones to airlift medicine to occupied territories that have been cut off from pharmaceutical supply chains (the occupation forces said they would figure it out, but didn’t)

ceejayoz 1 hour ago | parent

> Ever wonder what a country waging a grinding siege war could do with a plague lab?

There's a reason the US and Soviets were largely willing to get rid of the stuff - it's fairly useless geopolitically, because you mostly can't target it.

beedeebeedee 53 minutes ago | parent

That’s only if you care about nation states.

hardbass 48 minutes ago | parent

Viruses and bacteria don't care about nation states

mikrl 46 minutes ago | parent

Your reassurance relies on strategic calculus of the 20th century, arrived at by a much less cynical leadership, in both cases.

It can definitely be targeted: behind enemy lines, or in the occupied territory with selective access to antibiotics. Population migration can be enforced coercively too.

This is the same regime pulling stunts like this [0] and threatening nuclear war, absolutely would not be surprised.

[0] https://www.occrp.org/en/news/putins-chef-sends-bloody-sledg...

lelandfe 1 hour ago | parent

Who will be Russia’s Li Wenliang

Waterluvian 1 hour ago | parent

I suspect it will be similar to the current American regime's past handling of COVID: a lot of skilled people wanting to do the right thing, but having to fight an unnecessary uphill battle against the administration that was more interested in perception, economics, and politics than lives.

sib 1 hour ago | parent

Is your implication that COVID was intentionally created in an American bioweapons lab with the goal of creating something both highly deadly and highly transmissible for use in future conflicts?

Waterluvian 1 hour ago | parent

I see how this could be confusing for you. Note that we're discussing the response to a potential crisis.

khazhoux 1 hour ago | parent

Literally nothing in parent comment would suggest that, no.

bobthepanda 1 hour ago | parent

I mean we are talking about the successor state to the one that botched the Chernobyl response, it's not hard to imagine a repeat

cavemandaveman 48 minutes ago | parent

I'm not sure the public health establishment didn't do more harm than good during COVID, especially with all the politically expedient flip-flopping on masking: First claiming it was unnecessary as a white lie to protect supplies for front-line workers, then promoting cloth masks despite evidence not being able to establish it statistically significantly slows spread, and then insisting on masking children in their formative years who had already been vaccinated or otherwise gained natural protection against COVID.

Remember all the theater around wearing your mask to your restaurant table and then taking it off for your entire meal in an enclosed room with dozens of other people? Or shutting down public parks and beaches but excusing BLM protests because they agreed with their politics?

The Trump admin was cartoonishly inept but the public health experts did plenty to kill their own credibility as well.

not_kurt_godel 28 minutes ago | parent

States and people that listened to the public health establishment saved hundreds of thousands of lives: https://batten.virginia.edu/research/how-state-policies-impa...:

> If all states had imposed restrictions similar to those used in the 10 most restrictive states, excess deaths would have been an estimated 10% to 21% lower than the 1.18 million that actually occurred during the 2-year analysis period; conversely, the estimates suggest counterfactual increases of 13% to 17% if all states had restrictions similar to those in the 10 least-restrictive states. The estimated strong vs weak state restriction difference was 271 000 to 447 000 deaths, with behavior changes associated with 49% to 79% of the overall disparity.

surfingdino 1 hour ago | parent

Russians don't do disasters by halves, so we should prepare ourselves for the worst outcome.

drdaeman 28 minutes ago | parent

Most likely both. Just recently Russia had already contained the embarrassment of announcing there was a foot-and-mouth disease in cattle (so they don’t have to declare even a sporadic outbreak), but they also eradicated all the cattle to both contain and cover it up. Most likely, the same thing - containing, but under a different (less unsavory-sounding) pretense.

2OEH8eoCRo0 1 hour ago | parent

First China and now Russia? We can't allow a pandemic gap!

davidee 1 hour ago | parent

Either way it's a communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.

fasterik 1 hour ago | parent

That's why I only drink pure grain alcohol and rainwater

r721 1 hour ago | parent

Previous discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49960084 (277 comments)

x86x87 1 hour ago | parent

the same US that gives zero fraks about public health and gutted the CDC before and during the pandemic?

lenerdenator 1 hour ago | parent

If you think we don't care, well, get ready for a level of not caring that will be hard to fathom.

This is the successor state to the country that thought it could hide a cloud of nuclear fallout.

kgeist 1 hour ago | parent

Wikipedia says: "in the United States, infections occasionally occur in rural areas, where the bacteria are believed to circulate among rodents." A few years ago a boy in Russia contracted the plague after interacting with a wild marmot, he was treated successfully without any problems. I think this news is overblown, because everyone immediately pictures 14th century Europe

aqme28 1 hour ago | parent

Similar to the cruise-ship Hantavirus situation earlier this year. People see a disease they've never encountered and assume it's a novel pandemic. Really, it's just one of the rare cases where a westerner contracts a disease that's endemic to the global poor.

tokioyoyo 1 hour ago | parent

Most of people who are alive can relate to a very specific period in their lives, and it’s easy to imagine now what virus can do in terms of social life.

mcmcmc 1 hour ago | parent

Are you discounting rural Americans as not being part of the global poor then? Or not real “westerners”? There have been roughly 30 cases a year in western states since the disease was first found here in the 90s

selectodude 28 minutes ago | parent

>Are you discounting rural Americans as not being part of the global poor then?

Nobody who dies of obesity-related health issues is a member of the global poor.

Forgeties79 24 minutes ago | parent

30 in a population of 350mill is a ~1:10000000 chance of getting it. 900 or so cases in 3 decades. A cursory google search shows it's killed about 300 people since 1990, so roughly 10 a year, the equivalent of venomous snake-related deaths more or less, and that's because we have quick access to anti-venoms for most of the population otherwise the casualties would be far higher.

Treating that low number like a low number is not "discounting" rural US citizens. The US - all populations included - does not really live with the hantavirus in any real sense. It's incredibly rare. 10x as many people are struck by lightening annually in the US.

lynndotpy 19 minutes ago | parent

Hantavirus is worth worrying about, though. If you have a mouse infestation, don't vacuum up droppings. Put on a mask, spray them with disinfectant, get them nice and wet, wipe them up 10 minutes later while they're still wet, then clean the area again.

jibalt 13 minutes ago | parent

Oh, was the hantavirus a product of a Russian gain-of-function biolab?

mcmcmc 1 hour ago | parent

Prairie dogs are the main carriers in the US, and yet some people still want to give them protections because they are “cute”. They are literal vermin. Colorado is attempting to put a bag limit on hunting them, which is ridiculous given nobody is bagging their prairie dog kills. Because again, they are vermin.

SoftTalker 1 hour ago | parent

They are food for coyotes and similar predators, no? They have a place in the ecology of the area.

mcmcmc 49 minutes ago | parent

They also destroy farmland and dig holes that cause hoofed animals to break their legs. The population got way out of control when their predators were mostly driven off by humans. And again, they spread bubonic plague. They are about as ecologically important as mosquitos. I understand the Venn diagram of HN users and people who grew up rural is infinitesimally small, but they are well known nuisance animals.

pigpop 46 minutes ago | parent

Come on, coyotes are classified as a least endangered animal and for good reason; they breed like crazy and eat almost anything. They are also a massive nuisance to livestock, a minor danger to people and they'll eat your cat or dog given half a chance. Culling prairie dogs would just mean their population would be slightly less booming.

password54321 1 hour ago | parent

People just dramatically updated their priors since Covid. We went from pandemics are a problem of previous centuries to any new outbreak might be a pandemic.

eastbound 1 hour ago | parent

The disease is not the problem, people's reaction to it, is.

Quinner 46 minutes ago | parent

No pretty sure its the disease that kills people.

buellerbueller 39 minutes ago | parent

The bullet is not the problem, the squishy matter people are made of is.

throwaway5752 37 minutes ago | parent

I think you can safely agree that they are not mutually exclusive and both of them are problems. In this particular case, it was a 100% fatality disease in a gain-of-function lab. It is being handled extremely seriously by Russia.

Perhaps the Russian military is overreacting with the blanket quarantines, but the odds are more likely that they understand the nature better than anyone else.

Again, normal pneumonic plague approaches 100% fatality rates. This is potentially a weaponized form.

This is an "oh, fuck" moment.

ToucanLoucan 54 minutes ago | parent

Don't forget that what passes for a white house in the USA lately is ripping the copper out of the walls of our health and human services departments at incredible pace to give more tax cuts to billionaires

JumpCrisscross 40 minutes ago | parent

> tax cuts to billionaires

To some billionaires. Congress isn't doing jack shit in statute.

buellerbueller 44 minutes ago | parent

The world is far more connected logistically before. Yes, we have modern medicine, but many people reject it. So, the priors-updating was probably both overdue, but maybe also overblown.

ericmay 9 minutes ago | parent

> Yes, we have modern medicine, but many people reject it

Yea you are definitely right about that. In Africa (specific countries I can’t currently recall) attempts at vaccination programs for example are often met with hostility or suspicion or even some people believing a vaccine causes the disease.

There was also vaccine skepticism during the COVID-19 pandemic in countries like China which refused first-to-market western vaccines out of fear and suspicion. It’s tragic all around.

jmyeet 10 minutes ago | parent

Tbf Covid was unique in that it was a virus capable of airborne transmission while being asymptomatic and also it can be fatal without killing too quickly. That's extremely unusual. Even more rare, some people never showed symptoms or the symptoms were so mild so it was unclear if it was Covid at all.

Hemorrhagic fevers (including Ebola), for example, are incredibly deadly but that really limits their ability to spread. You still have to be diligent but there's a reason why Ebola has been contained to parts of Africa the the virus seemingly spreads from animals to humans every now and again, starting another local outbreak. But it's never spread globally and it's unlikely to.

Probably the last comparable disease to Covid was the Spanish flu in terms of its ability to spread and that was over 100 years ago. It's worth noting that the Spanish flu could also spread asymptomatically, which also explains it's impact to a large degree. Pretty much every modern influenza variant is a derivative of the Spanish flu, which also tells you something about what tends to happen to novel diseases.

Y pestus is a bacteria, not a virus. We now have antibiotics that could likely combat it, which was obviously something that didn't exist in medieval Europe. Back then it wasn't at all clear that diseases spread by microorganisms at all. Plus, rodents were key to that spread and that's a far smaller problem now.

The nightmare scenario is probably some deadly variant of measles because measles is so incredibly contagious, probably more than any other disease I can think of. It can survive airborne for a very long time and in the modern era we've traced outbreaks of tens of thousands of cases to one single person. But the ability of measles to survive outside a host is also (luckily) incredibly rare.

lovich 1 hour ago | parent

I think a lot of people don't realize the Black Plague is bacterial and we already have a cure for it. Most people getting anxious probably assume its like Covid and a cure would have to be developed.

CoastalCoder 1 hour ago | parent

Do you have a theory for why that researcher died?

nostrademons 59 minutes ago | parent

I think it's pretty apparent from the news articles about it. She died of pneumonic plague, which is a fast-moving form of Yersinia Pestis infection that is roughly 100% fatal if first treatment occurs > 24 hours after symptoms start.

Why pneumonic plague? Pneumonic plague is the form of infection that occurs when plague bacteria are inhaled in aerosolized form into the lungs, or when septicemic plague (plague in the bloodstreams) reaches the lungs. Like, for example, when a test tube breaks. Her method of infection was a pretty textbook vector for pneumonic plague. Other cases have been caused when tissue samples of infected rodents have been splayed open, for example, or when blood from an infected person splatters the respiratory tract. Plague bacteria spreads pretty poorly otherwise, which is why the main vector for bubonic plague is flea bites.

cguess 58 minutes ago | parent

If it's the pneumonia style (i.e. the infection is in the lungs, not the lymph nodes) you have to start antibiotics very quickly or it's basically 100% fatal. So it's treatable, but only to a point. The good news is basic masks and quarantine are extremely effective, so the risk of outright spread beyond the initial patients and very early health care workers is very small.

pzo 1 hour ago | parent

there is not information that's exactly the same bacteria and that drugs work. It might be novel one or modified in the lab. Even for flu we don't have general vaccine that works.

throwaway20222 1 hour ago | parent

Yes, the fact that is the plague is less worrying than it is plague from a bio research lab that escaped. The only unfounded, non verified news i have read is that it can from collecting of samples, not post experimenting. But your guess is as good as mine at this point

lovich 24 minutes ago | parent

And there might be a teapot on the other side of the sun.

It’s bacteria, antibiotics work more generally than vaccines for viruses do.

There are of course, antibiotic resistant bacteria but we still have some exotic antibiotics in our arsenal.

If anything for a widespread bacterial plague I’d be more concerned about our ability to produce enough antibiotics rather than _if_ we could develop a cure

jacquesm 1 hour ago | parent

Another thing is that the Black Plague symptoms are pretty horrible, enough to cause anxiety even if you know there is a cure.

lovich 22 minutes ago | parent

I guess that’s true. I’ve literally had worse but I’m in a small minority so maybe discounting the effect of that experience.

chiffre01 1 hour ago | parent

You should read up on the long history of Russian Biological War programs. Fascinating stuff. They came up with some insane versions of plague.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_biological_weapons_prog...

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/rr/rr7003a1.htm?

DennisP 1 hour ago | parent

Yep. And this is a lab that was reportedly doing gain-of-function research.

Chance-Device 56 minutes ago | parent

Indeed. I wonder how much work it would be to make this antibiotic resistant. Then the Russians develop some bacteriophage that infects and kills the bacteria as their own cure.

dualvariable 15 minutes ago | parent

The phrase "gain-of-function research" has acquired almost magical properties on the Internet. You can do literally anything you want to a pathogen with it.

bsimpson 52 minutes ago | parent

I saw a post about this on Reddit this morning. Haven't looked into it further, but people were claiming that there are versions of this plague that have been modified to release other toxins. It's effectively a bioweapon: they cure you for the plague, which kills you with the poison it contained.

A_D_E_P_T 37 minutes ago | parent

There are some that had been modified to release endorphins!

>"When we first heard Soviet scientists were inserting the endorphin gene [for euphoria] into plague," says Dr. Henry Heine, a former U.S. Army bacteriologist, "we were appalled. That they would purposefully engineer the Y. pestis bacteria to behave this way... to make you want to go out and socialize... this was some horrifying stuff."

> . . .

> Former assistant secretary of defense Andy Weber agrees. "I grew up thinking Reagan’s phrase ‘Evil Empire’ was an exaggeration," he tells us. "Then I learned what the Russians were doing [with biological warfare]." He pauses for effect. "It was evil."

The accounts are from Annie Jacobsen's notes in "Biological War".

penskymaterial 32 minutes ago | parent

Reddit and Wikipedia are the universe's two most unreliable sources of information, behind somebody's Aunt Linda after a couple glasses of box wine.

darkwi11ow 29 minutes ago | parent

Better than rt though

jibalt 23 minutes ago | parent

Those two things are not alike, and the claim about Wikipedia is a blatant lie ... certainly it is vastly more reliable than you are. Other comments from you:

> there is a gatekeeping cretin in his basement hitting refresh to make sure he controls the world's definition for egg salad.

> Wikipedia is filled with ministers of truth.

Permanently muted and dismissed.

amatron48 24 minutes ago | parent

In a similar vein, I highly recommend Annie Jacobsen's recent book, Biological War: A scenario. It dives into the Soviet/Russian biological weapons programs and discusses facilities such as the Vector Institute (State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology) located in Koltsovo, Siberia. Interestingly enough, the scenario follows a lab leak of weaponized plague at this research facility... having read the book it was rather shocking to see this headline.

iso1631 1 hour ago | parent

This was a "28-year-old employee at the anti-plague institute in the city of Irkutsk", she didn't catch it from a rat in a rural area.

christophilus 59 minutes ago | parent

I also think it's overblown. My fear is that this is a special form of the disease, modified by Russian researchers for who knows what reasons, and may therefore be a problem.

gaoshan 58 minutes ago | parent

My fear is that this is an enhanced virus that was being subjected to gain of function research, making it potentially much more dangerous than bog standard plague.

fnordpiglet 46 minutes ago | parent

Bacteria in this case

musicale 52 minutes ago | parent

Pneumonic plague seems bad enough, though its high mortality rate might limit spread.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumonic_plague

> Former head of the national public health agency Rospotrebnadzor stated that the disease the researcher died of is "most likely not the plague, but even if confirmed, there will be no spread of this disease

Very reassuring.

cannonpr 47 minutes ago | parent

The particular bacterium if infecting the skin is fairly treatable and mild with modern medicine, pneumonic plague is 100% lethal if not treated within 24h and utterly asymptomatic during the first 24h, it’s also airborne. Same bacterium but very different diseases..

ls612 40 minutes ago | parent

Yes the bubonic plague was terrifying for the pre-modern old world but in the 21st century it is easily countered with common antibiotics.

throwaway5752 32 minutes ago | parent

Not in a gain of function lab. Or the lab worker, knowingly working on this specific pathogen, would probably still be alive.

jibalt 11 minutes ago | parent

So why is she dead?

JumpCrisscross 38 minutes ago | parent

There are three ways the plague manifests: bubonic (Black Death, highly treatable), pneumonic (what this researcher died of) and systemic (gets in your blood–super nasty, but also doesn't spread easily).

Pneumonic is the most transmissible. That's why this is worth paying attention to. Not reacting to in any manner. But keeping a close eye on. Russia being Russia we'll probably only learn if containment was lost from Mongolia or China.

giantg2 21 minutes ago | parent

I mostly agree, but I am more concerned about a strain from a lab than the wild. Many times we study the worst strains, which might mean this has more potential to spread, higher fatality, etc.

sollewitt 14 minutes ago | parent

My concern is that it is “the plague”.

chasil 9 minutes ago | parent

There was a recent fatality in Arizona.

'The “young adult male” died eight hours after he was admitted to the hospital, where doctors initially suspected he had hantavirus disease or bacterial pneumonia. Post-mortem testing confirmed Y pestis presence in his blood and lung tissue. It's Arizona’s first pneumonic plague death since 2007.'

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/plague/cdc-reminds-doctors-southw...

ChrisArchitect 1 hour ago | parent

jorblumesea 1 hour ago | parent

glad we laid off so many government workers and cdc staff, and politicized their work. very cool and certainly making things great.

iAMkenough 1 hour ago | parent

The AI giants are developing their own private bio labs, so at least we can rely on them to fill the knowledge gap.

rootedbox 1 hour ago | parent

I really don't like FAFO science.

adamrezich 58 minutes ago | parent

September 23rd, 2026:

- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calls Vladimir Putin “patient zero” of global wars spreading: “He must be denied the space to act and the space to spread this evil further.”

- Taylor Swift announces surprise new single: “Patient Zero”

sroerick 46 minutes ago | parent

I thought this was weird

vanillacupcake 54 minutes ago | parent

“COVID was airborne. COVID had a case fatality rate of 1%. Pneumonic plague, without antibiotics, has a case fatality rate of 100%.” Annie Jacobsen Author of Biological War [00:23:00] https://www.jordanharbinger.com/annie-jacobsen-the-genes-and...

KK7NIL 46 minutes ago | parent

> COVID had a case fatality rate of 1%. Pneumonic plague, without antibiotics, has a case fatality rate of 100%.

a) why are we comparing treated death rates with untreated death rates?

b) COVID got significantly less deadly as it evolved, which is a known phenomenon that should also apply to this plague

c) that link hijacked my back button, I don't appreciate that >:-(

dualvariable 18 minutes ago | parent

> b) COVID got significantly less deadly as it evolved, which is a known phenomenon that should also apply to this plague

No, it isn't a known phenomenon, and no, that isn't what happened.

Transmissibility and virulence are actually linked.

Delta was more transmissible and was more deadly, not less. Omicron was also highly transmissible and highly deadly.

Viral replication is also linked to both transmissibility and virulence, and that also increased with Delta and Omicron.

The headlines that Omicron was less virulent were falsified when Omicron hit Taiwan (a largely immune-naive elderly population) and was every bit as deadly as Delta was.

What happened to make later strains less deadly was the evolution of the human immune system since pretty much everyone became vaccinated or recovered and acquired T-cells that would recognize later strains.

The virus only "cares" if it becomes so virulent that it kills you before it spreads. The way that COVID kills, long after the presymptomatic shedding period, after several weeks, doesn't matter--you can dial it up and make that worse, and you won't prevent the virus from spreading.

alex_duf 9 minutes ago | parent

I guess how bad the situation is depends how quickly that 100% chance of dying pans out.

The quicker it is, the less it spreads.

Has this got a name?

bilekas 40 minutes ago | parent

> a 28-year-old employee at the anti-plague institute in the city of Irkutsk, became ill at work...

> It remains unclear how she became unwell.

That's some fine reporting right there.

metalman 22 minutes ago | parent

the person who died , I believ lived and worked in the same area, and presumably would have recieved every availible escalation in care, and that she was likely ambulatory on admitance would have relayed her ocupational hazards, that she died implies that, she had a compromised immune system or pre existing complication or condition, or this was an exceptionaly virolent infection or less likely, incompetence and botched care, even less likely her cause of death is completly unrelated to the plauge. that they have quarantined hundreds suggests that this is in fact an unknown virolent infectios disease. almost certainly, cultures and dna tests are well underway and there will be clear answers within 48 hr's or sooner.

georgemcbay 10 minutes ago | parent

> cultures and dna tests are well underway and there will be clear answers within 48 hr's or sooner.

Patient zero died 4-5 days ago after being infected for about a week (likely infected Sept 25th).

There are probably already clear answers to some of these questions, but that doesn't mean the public will get them.

giardini 22 minutes ago | parent

Will the next cases be in Ukraine?

dyauspitr 21 minutes ago | parent

The only thing that doesn’t scare me as much about this is that it’s bacterial.