702 points Philpax 2 hours ago 400 comments

crimsoneer 2 hours ago | parent

Woah, this seems like a big deal (assuming the benchmarks are as good as claimed)?

Mistral slightly proving me wrong (and I'm not mad).

cbg0 2 hours ago | parent

Claims to be on par with GLM 5.3 in DeepSWE (from https://thenextweb.com/news/mistral-releases-large-4-a-1-tri...)

Narciss 2 hours ago | parent

Le Chaton Fat is here!

HelloUsername 2 hours ago | parent

Narciss 2 hours ago | parent

Yeah just saw that, I'm gonna keep converting it in my head.

imjonse 2 hours ago | parent

staticman2 2 hours ago | parent

Since the Chinese companies publish their research it would have been odd if Mistral didn't start catching up.

keithnoizu 2 hours ago | parent

touche

throwa356262 2 hours ago | parent

It certainly has helped OpenAI and Anthropic get their KV cache costs under control.

Tade0 2 hours ago | parent

It's no secret that everyone is dis-stealing from everyone else.

drbscl 1 hour ago | parent

I don't see how distillation relates to using the published techniques developed by Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu, etc

aeneas_ory 2 hours ago | parent

Benchmarks are better than expected! And probably got there without distillation ;)

water-drummer 2 hours ago | parent

Is there a reason to believe why they wouldn't distill locally running open weights Chinese models?

mcbuilder 2 hours ago | parent

Looks like they are doing 50% off to stay price competitive with DS Flash V4.1

prodigycorp 2 hours ago | parent

Impressive vision benchmarking. If the vision model is truly as good as astra, that would make it best in the world.

Also strong on cyber benchmarks (better than all chinese models), so this is a good defender model.

Lots of people shitting of Mistral for no reason imo. These are pretty good numbers across the board. Definitely good enough to use as a daily driver over other llms, if you have moral qualms with the others. For certain use cases, like cyber security, this may be the go to model.

I like to make fun of europe, but there's lots for mistral to be proud about in this release imo.

i_love_retros 1 hour ago | parent

Curious, what do you like to make fun of Europe about?

will4274 1 hour ago | parent

Europe has spent the last twenty years in stagnation - generating about half as much wealth and technology as you'd expect for its size and advanced economy. Simultaneously, Europeans are notoriously arrogant. It's a mockable combination.

Edit: unfortunately, it's a question that voting does not really permit you to answer on this website.

steinvakt2 1 hour ago | parent

I'm biased (I'm European), but I'd much rather be middle class in Europe than in USA.

will4274 1 hour ago | parent

I'd much rather the people of every continent have the combined technology advancements of three major powers vs two.

formvoltron 1 hour ago | parent

Do you realize the variety of breakfast cereals you are giving up?

oblio 1 hour ago | parent

Also the range of things with added sugar. I never imagined sauerkraut (you know, sour cabbage) could have sugar added to it.

WarmWash 1 hour ago | parent

The US is biased to favor the top half of society. Hence why there is a lot of vocal poorer people and a lot of low profile wealthier people (I'm not including the 1% or even the 5% in this).

When you are in the 75%ish of the US, it's very easy to make a case that life in the US is better. But we don't really talk about that because it's pretty taboo when poorer people are struggling much more than they would in Europe.

will4274 1 hour ago | parent

Poor people in America (25th percentile) have more money that middle class people (50th percentile) in Europe. This wasn't true 20 years ago.

femtozer 41 minutes ago | parent

more money but what about access to healthcare, education, vacation?

broptimist 40 minutes ago | parent

This is untrue. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe...

Median wealth per adult has the USA at #28, below Italy, Spain, Slovenia, and Portugal.

will4274 29 minutes ago | parent

Income is the relevant metric. Most poor people (worldwide) have negligible savings.

USA 25th percentile 28k to 30k EU-27 50th percentile 24k to 26k.

preg_match 35 minutes ago | parent

Money is one thing, quality of life is another. Also money alone isn’t even a fair comparison because stuff costs different amounts across countries.

jandrewrogers 3 minutes ago | parent

Almost half of US households earn $100k+ now. The median American is affluent by European standards. The "middle class" of Europe and America has become less comparable over time because median incomes have significantly diverged. You see it in many aspects of lifestyle and the kinds of things they can afford to buy.

20 years ago this was not the case. The minimum wage in some parts of the US is now higher than the average wage in most of Europe.

The US has a population that will always struggle to survive without government assistance. Per multiple US statistical agencies that is about 10-15% of households.

Jgrubb 54 minutes ago | parent

I'm biased as well, being American. I think I'd much rather be middle class in Europe than the USA as well. Middle class in the US is a constant feeling of the ladder dissolving just beneath you.

will4274 20 minutes ago | parent

If you're middle class in America and you'd like to be middle class in Europe, you can just do that.

newswasboring 2 minutes ago | parent

People always make this case, if you're not satisfied then move. As someone who has changed countries twice and continents once, I can attest it's not an easy or convenient thing to do. Money or lifestyle is one thing, but you're also leaving behind family and culture. Statements like these are so dismissive to that struggle that it's almost offensive to me.

a3w 1 hour ago | parent

If you remove tech companies, US and A has spent the last twenty years in stagnation, too. If that bubble bursts, both are on par.

If it bears fruits and we build ``it'', everyone dies, which is par, also?

will4274 1 hour ago | parent

Gemini says (20 years growth): - USA: 51% total, 27% without tech. - EU: 25% total, 21% without tech. - China: 345% total, 205% without tech.

cavemandaveman 1 hour ago | parent

A 'bubble bursting', if that happens, doesn't make the tech sector go to zero. Apple doesn't suddenly stop making iPhones. It would take a hell of a lot more than that for the US economy to fall to European levels.

ramblerman 1 hour ago | parent

Ah yes... the "European". From the Scandinavian viking to the Sicilian - one homogenous group that agrees on everything and acts the same.

will4274 1 hour ago | parent

Well, the Scandinavian and Sicilian do share one currency and one immigration policy and one set of regulations - which are the things that we generally look at when we analyze economies.

ramblerman 1 hour ago | parent

> Europeans are notoriously arrogant. It's a mockable combination.

Not a very rigorous economic argument - besides they also don't share an immigration policy, nor a single currency (Denmark)

robk 1 hour ago | parent

Not currency! Only Nordic on euro is Finland

suddenlybananas 1 hour ago | parent

Norwegians, Danes, Swedes and Finns all use a different currency. Finns and Sicilians do share a currency though, but all these countries have different immigration policies and regulations. I don't think you really know how the EU works.

kranke155 1 hour ago | parent

read Varoufakis for the story on how this happened. European surplus capital gets recycled as VC money into Silicon Valley. So it's not like there's some big choice to be made, its potentially a systemic part of the global monetary flows.

ramon156 1 hour ago | parent

Ironically, the US is always busy with growth. How about celebrating a victory for once?

Take a look at NLNet vs YC. At NLNet, You set your milestones, do the work and get rewarded.

YC just throws money in the hopes one company is a unicorn. Both support growth, but they're not comparable at all.

ofrzeta 1 hour ago | parent

Arrogant? Actually we are not the ones running around and claiming we are the best country in the world :)

will4274 14 minutes ago | parent

I guess you didn't read the thread :)

i_love_retros 1 hour ago | parent

Yet Europeans are healthier, happier, and have a better quality of life than Americans. They also have so much better transport infrastructure it's embarrassing for Americans. Like all the money America generates, where does it go?

Maybe you're just bitter?

fearmerchant 45 minutes ago | parent

Demographics.

adventured 41 minutes ago | parent

Show me the HDI of the US vs each country in Europe, including all the poor ones.

Edit - never mind, I'll do it, HDI in order:

Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Finland, UK, US, Slovenia, Austria, Luxembourg, France, Spain, Czechia, Italy, Greece, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Portugal, Croatia, Latvia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Russia, Belarus, Bosnia, Moldova, Ukraine

To put that into context, Moldova is on par with Ecuador, Tonga and Dominican Republic.

The US is a country of roughly 340 million people with an HDI above Austria.

will4274 24 minutes ago | parent

Trends become the future. If European stagnation continues, those advantages will vanish by the time we're old.

I'm frustrated, not bitter. Americans are acutely aware of falling behind China, and rightly concerned about it. Europe is falling behind Alabama, Mexico, and Brazil, and arrogant about it.

bob1029 16 minutes ago | parent

> Yet Europeans are healthier, happier, and have a better quality of life than Americans.

I wonder if this is actually true. I see very few Americans taking every possible opportunity to make bombastic statements about how their lives are better than everyone else's (at least on HN). This conversation seems quite asymmetric from my perspective.

> Maybe you're just bitter?

This comes off as psychological projection.

lukewarm707 1 hour ago | parent

If the UK is in europe, you should make fun of the following: they don't have a first amendment. So to me, it's an authoritarian state preaching freedom.

i_love_retros 1 hour ago | parent

They also don't have a second amendment so it balances out

lukewarm707 1 hour ago | parent

Doesn't that make it even less free?

i_love_retros 1 hour ago | parent

Ask the school kids in America how free they feel

lukewarm707 57 minutes ago | parent

That would be mixing my comment (freedom from the state) with general liberties.

(edit, terms the wrong way around)

mortalapeman 1 hour ago | parent

I mean laws and rights are only useful if enforced. If the arm of government responsible for enforcement just doesn't and the people allow it, then what good is that purported freedom?

lukewarm707 46 minutes ago | parent

Freedom from enforcement?

gond 53 minutes ago | parent

Sometimes, comments are so baffling, I couldn’t formulate an answer even if I tried, and that’s not due to the content.

This is Not Even Wrong.

lukewarm707 51 minutes ago | parent

Perhaps if there is no decisive counterargument, it is a valid opinion?

mcv 50 minutes ago | parent

The order of amendments is just the order in which the constitution has been amended. It's meaningless to talk about "first amendments" in other countries. Talk about the actual laws and rights described therein.

And as you can probably tell by now, the first amendment in the US is not actually preventing the US government from promoting a specific religion or silencing speech. It's just words on a paper at this point. Look at the actual practice.

Several European countries do a much better job at protecting the rights described in the first amendment to the US constitution.

lukewarm707 44 minutes ago | parent

> "Talk about the actual laws and rights described therein."

Freedom of speech.

> "Look at the actual practice."

The UK does not have that? The situation in the UK is very obtuse. It is confused.

mcv 16 minutes ago | parent

The UK does not have what? Book bans? Science censorship by the government? The government pushing TV shows off the air for criticising the government? The president banning certain news media for asking questions he doesn't like?

The UK is not the world's biggest champion of free speech, but I think it's still doing better than the US right now.

will4274 6 minutes ago | parent

The US doesn't have book bans. Some public libraries not stocking some books isn't a ban. You can still buy Mein Kampf (or whatever you like) on Amazon.

The president also didn't ban the media - he just didn't allow them in the Whitehouse. This is something we're rightly concerned about and pushing back on.

The UK on the other hand, does ban ordinary speech by ordinary people in their homes. It's orders of magnitude worse than the United States, as any cursory examination would show.

cesarb 17 minutes ago | parent

> The order of amendments is just the order in which the constitution has been amended. It's meaningless to talk about "first amendments" in other countries.

Also, at least here in Brazil, the way the constitution is amended is by patching it. For instance, our constitutional amendment number 115 (https://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/constituicao/emendas/e...) patches article 5 of the constitution to add protection of personal data as a right. But we wouldn't talk about "amendment 115", we would instead talk about "article 5 item LXXIX of the constitution"; that is, what matters is the patched text, not the law that patched it.

I don't know about other countries, but it wouldn't surprise me if they take a similar approach.

mcv 14 minutes ago | parent

Same in Netherland. We don't count changes to our constitution, we simply refer to the article in the constitution.

TacticalCoder 1 hour ago | parent

> Curious, what do you like to make fun of Europe about?

Well I'm european and... That Switzerland (Europe but not EU) has more companies in the Top 70 by market cap than the entire EU (Switzerland has two, the EU only has ASML) is kinda something that warrants making fun of.

That the biggest European software company is SAP, in 71th position is both sad and tragic: it shows how lame and irrelevant Europe is when it comes to software.

So Europe is nowhere in software and friggin nowhere in hardware: sure it's got ASML but ASML now has officially... Zero customer in Europe. Zero is not much.

Then Japan is at least trying to come back into the game with nano imprint litography. Europe is betting it all on AMSL (which anyway is majoritarily US-owned).

So software: nothing. Hardware: nothing besides ASML.

Overall the EU has six companies in the Top 100 by market cap and they're all, besides ASML, near the bottom of the Top 100.

We could also maybe make a bit fun of how the EU destroyed it's car industry (the main industry in Germany, which is the biggest economy of the union) by handing it all to chinese EVs?

Or what about the US warning the EU, years ago, to not become entirely dependent on Russia for energy? And EU not listening and then seeing its energy price skyrocket when the proverbial shit hit the fan? (Russia attacking Ukraine)

And we could, also, at least make a bit of fun of entire streets in cities like Paris and Brussels that used to have luxury shops and fancy restaurants that are all turned into places selling cheap kebabs? What a great success: I'm sure this one makes the komrades happy. It projects an image of grandeur and success: kebabs.

Or the constant attacks on free speech in the EU. Or the surveillance apparatus that's being put into place.

And let's not forget: there were promises made to Russia to never grow the EU to the east. Then the EU started exciting Russia by saying they'd incorporate Ukraine into the EU: I'm not against that but doing that did trigger a war. And now suddenly the EU is waking up and feeling all warmongering, wanting to dedicate a big percentage of its spending to weapons and tanks and missiles.

The warmongering tiny pet that the EU is is kinda laughable too.

At this point it's more like I don't know what is there left to not make fun of about my EU.

For what's going on is just sad, plain sad.

i_love_retros 1 hour ago | parent

Bro there's more to life than software and hardware. Try to get outside today :)

fearmerchant 46 minutes ago | parent

Not the OP but it often appears that there's a hostility to tech.

superxpro12 33 minutes ago | parent

The paradox between supporting consumer rights with actions like universal usb-c adoption, but also complete elimination of any privacy rights at all. Like the surveillance state is insane. No e2ee chats, backdoors in everything.

aqme28 14 minutes ago | parent

Isn't that just the recent highly controversial Chat Control push? Generally speaking, the EU has some quite strong privacy protections relative to the US.

UltraSane 32 minutes ago | parent

dr_dshiv 29 minutes ago | parent

Like all the fancy jackets, tight pants and swords. That's hilarious

-- My imagination of Europe when I was 15 living in Ohio

erichocean 2 hours ago | parent

Does Mistral ever advance the state of the art on any dimension?

And if not, why do they exist?

Update: The number of people advocating not innovating is wild. There is no reason why Mistral cannot innovate in ML, they explicitly choose not to. My point is that, given that choice, they should spend their GPU hours differently.

"Sovereign AI" is a joke, there is no substantive difference between a post-trained open weight model from an American or Chinese company and what Mistral is doing today, beyond spending 80% of their GPU hours reproducing a last-gen model's pretraining.

CJefferson 2 hours ago | parent

Why would the Europeans want a high-quality open source model that isn't either owned by American Trillion-dollar companies or created by the Chinese? You really can't think of any reasons?

erichocean 1 hour ago | parent

> high-quality open source model

> that isn't owned

I don't know what definition of open weights you are using, but the "open" part is what allows you to use it without being beholden to American Trillion-dollar companies or the Chinese.

Mistral could do exactly what Cursor does, and post-train the model to meet the needs of Europeans.

That's a far more efficient (and useful!) use of GPUs than yet another pretrain on an outdated model backbone.

embedding-shape 2 hours ago | parent

Just like Microsoft and most companies around PCs, their existence isn't about pushing any boundaries, but seemingly targeting deploying what's already been "invented" into the corporate world and bigger companies. Not "wrong", just different.

erichocean 1 hour ago | parent

Sure, agreed. But they do their own pre-training, at great expense, on outdated model backbones.

Wouldn't it be better to do something more like Cursor, and RL on an existing pretrained model if you're not innovating anyway?

notfromhere 1 hour ago | parent

Why build cars when you can just change the seat covers

eigenspace 2 hours ago | parent

Has the French military advanced the state of the art on any dimension in the last hundred years?

And if not, why do they exist?

pizzafeelsright 2 hours ago | parent

Second hand rifle distributor?

azan_ 2 hours ago | parent

Of course they have!

eigenspace 1 hour ago | parent

Regardless though, their reason to exist is not to advance the state of the art.

Their reason to exist is to ensure the sovereignty of France.

Obviously they would do their job better if they were advancing the state of the art, but it's not like it's pointless if they arent the absolute best.

swiftcoder 2 hours ago | parent

So that there exists an EU-native option in the near-frontier LLM space?

Not everyone is wild about being downstream of either the Chinese or US governments, particularly when it comes to things like cybersecurity

whstl 2 hours ago | parent

Does erichocean ever advance the state of the art on any dimension?

And if not, why do they exist?

erichocean 1 hour ago | parent

Yes, actually. Thanks for asking.

esafak 1 hour ago | parent

Mistral is one of the few European AI labs. Look up "sovereign AI".

tdubey 2 hours ago | parent

Is there consensus on if this was https://openrouter.ai/stealth/space-bunny-alpha ?

irl_zebra 2 hours ago | parent

Yes broad consensus had developed in the ten minutes between announcement and you asking if consensus had developed, and I'm excited to report that it consensed in the affirmative -- it IS Space Bunny Alpha!

lucrbvi 1 hour ago | parent

Space Bunny Alpha is probably MiniMax M3.1 (rumors on Twitter since it seems to have a similar tokenizer).

scrubmunch 2 hours ago | parent

wowza le models a heckin chonker

nsbk 2 hours ago | parent

Nice! Once they make it available through their API I will be happy to support them. My local Qwen3.8 27B is serving me well, but I miss the speed and concurrency that comes with subscriptions, and I am not currently paying for any.

Tais-toi et prends mon argent!

quadruple 2 hours ago | parent

I believe it is already available in the API no?

objektif 1 hour ago | parent

Direct through them?

angristan 1 hour ago | parent

Yes and OpenRouter

4rtem 2 hours ago | parent

Previous one is barely in top 50 on arena.ai

maxdo 2 hours ago | parent

Not bad only two major releases behind top tier. Edit : checked its rather 3 generations behind . Oh well

Roark66 2 hours ago | parent

This sure is nice, but I've had less than satisfactory results with GLM5.3. I'd like Mistral to compete with Qwen3.8-Flash-Next a 120B class model that IMO is the first model that I can use for serious coding while running it locally.

I estimate it's coding ability on par with opus 4.6 (but opus definitely beats it on factual knowledge) Still it's a genuinely useful model, when everything else except Anthropic's models (and for only 3 weeks after it came out Google's Gemini 3 pro, before it got merged) are not to me.

I'd live to have one like that but EU made.

saberience 2 hours ago | parent

Looks like it's about a year behind still. i.e. its intelligence is behind models from roughly a year ago.

https://www.vals.ai/benchmarks/vals_index

eigenspace 2 hours ago | parent

Its quite interesting to see that at least the early days of AI so far have not been a winner-take-all runaway acceleration game where catchup is impossible.

I certainly wouldnt have predicted that 10 years ago.

Very glad to see Mistral still in the game even after some big stumbles with Large 3. I deeply hope that this model is 'good enough' that it becomes the European go-to, giving them the resources to keep the pace up.

I'm excited to try this out today.

apexalpha 2 hours ago | parent

I think a big part of that is the Chinese publishing the solution for everywhere hurdle in the road they've encountered in the form of a paper.

Deepseek essentially releases instruction manuals in paper form.

wg0 2 hours ago | parent

My spend on DeepSeek is not much and I regularly top up my balance every month as my support for all the good work DeepSeek is doing for the open science.

fsmedberg 2 hours ago | parent

DeepSeek, and other Chinese models, are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government. The reason they release the AI models is economic warfare against US, not because of charity or kindness. It's great for us consumers, but the goal is not to help humanity or open-source.

disgruntledphd2 2 hours ago | parent

> DeepSeek, and other Chinese models, are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government.

DeepSeek is basically a research lab founded by a hedge fund guy, more than anything else.

tacomagick 2 hours ago | parent

So is American models. They are subsidised heavily but still can't provide cheaper access. Their fault is to assume all countries can afford them.

rafram 1 hour ago | parent

By whom?

tacomagick 1 hour ago | parent

The government, specifically Trump's government and the current money circle in AI inflating American company stocks. In addition to all that American models do not share their papers like Deepseek and Qwen do. So you can literally say Chinese models are doing it for charity at this point.

rafram 1 hour ago | parent

Of course you can say that, but you literally cannot be serious if you do!

tacomagick 1 hour ago | parent

Oh I am serious!

_aavaa_ 1 hour ago | parent

This is a joke right?

Even ignoring monetary subsidies, there are the non-monetary ones: not being sued into oblivious by the government for their countless hacks of other companies and countries, the slaps on the wrist for massive piracy, the waving of environmental (and other) regulations in order to allow their data centres to be built an operated.

rafram 1 hour ago | parent

> Even ignoring monetary subsidies

That's what I'm asking - which monetary subsidies?

> not being sued into oblivious by the government for their countless hacks of other companies and countries

That isn't normally how enforcement works, and it hasn't been very long since they disclosed those breaches. If the victims want to pursue legal action, they can, and they still may!

> the slaps on the wrist for massive piracy

So judges and juries are involved in the subsidization conspiracy, too?

> the waving of environmental (and other) regulations in order to allow their data centres to be built an operated

Sure, though if you think this isn't happening in China too, I have a bridge to sell you.

_aavaa_ 50 minutes ago | parent

The original comments is "DeepSeek, and other Chinese models, are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government"

> That's what I'm asking - which monetary subsidies?

I am listing for you the non-monetary subsidies, which are just as real and equally important.

> not being sued into oblivious by the government for their countless hacks of other companies and countries

If it was one of the Chinese labs doing this hacking, the government would be stepping in. If it was European labs they'd be stepping in. If it was you or I the government would be stepping in. That is a massive subsidy (they don't have to worry about the same legal fees and exposure) and being allowed to continue doing business is in fact priceless.

> So judges and juries are involved in the subsidization conspiracy, too?

There is no conspiracy. They are objectively operating by a different set of rules than you or I could operate in this market.

> Sure, though if you think this isn't happening in China too, I have a bridge to sell you.

I never said it wasn't, I'm saying that it's happening here and it's a very real subsidy.

dghlsakjg 44 minutes ago | parent

CHIPS act, OBBA, defense, AI upskill grants.

That's just the ones i know off the top of my head in the US. Those programs account for more than 60 billion in committed spend.

antonyt 1 hour ago | parent

By investors. OpenAI and Anthropic are not profitable (Anthropic is profitable if you allow them to invent what profitability means).

oblio 1 hour ago | parent

I heard someone calling the key metric in Anthropic financial reports EBBT: Earnings Before Bad Things[1] :-)

[1] Where "Bad Things" would be the typical interest, taxes, depreciation, amortisation plus the Anthropic specific employee compensation, LLM training (you know, for the LLM lab), revenue sharing agreements (which is a form of paying for infrastructure), etc.

staticman2 1 hour ago | parent

A recent YouTube video by Patrick Boyle said the same thing. They are only profitable if you ignore all the costs that make them unprofitable such as paying employees and developing A models.

ai-x 50 minutes ago | parent

That's not how gross margin works.

For LLMs, marginal cost is just electricity

Bud 1 hour ago | parent

Investment is not a subsidy. Words still have meanings. Nobody in this thread has successfully answered the question: subsidized by whom?

Non-punishment is also not a subsidy; again, words have meanings. Let's use the correct words.

koe123 1 hour ago | parent

Investors, but also the government in allowing these companies to siphon electricity away passing the increased cost to the consumers

fauigerzigerk 1 hour ago | parent

>Investors, but also the government in allowing these companies to siphon electricity away passing the increased cost to the consumers

Not arbitrarily banning companies from buying a product from a supplier doesn't meet my definition of the term "subsidy".

ta20240528 11 minutes ago | parent

Fair enough, but it sure meets the definition of 'helpful intervention'.

gabriel666smith 1 hour ago | parent

If you want a direct example of the US subsidising a major AI lab, we can use Microsoft's investment in OpenAI. Microsoft has the largest ownership stake - 27%.

Microsoft did not pay with money - it paid (mostly) with Azure cloud computing credits. MSOFT is then able to write this off as a loss against tax.

It is generally far more tax-efficient in the US to write a loss in this way than it is to write a loss for a cash investment.

In this case, I believe the difference was ultimately highly significant. When including MSOFT eventually writing-off the deprecating Azure hardware it had used to buy the OpenAI equity, the result was MSOFT's tax reduction being either close-to or exceeding the actual cash value of MSOFT's investment in OpenAI - IIRC.

These examples represent taxes that the US chooses not to collect - the US could choose to make investments like these less tax-efficient. Instead, by making them extremely tax-efficient, the US subsidises the transaction hugely.

runarberg 49 minutes ago | parent

Capitalistic exploitation against the working classes.

lifeisloving 1 hour ago | parent

Not really this is an X algo conspiracy. Up until recently the Chinese government wasn't even that invested in these companies. We're talking very very small grants compared to training costs.

Its very xenophobic of you to say China has zero intention of helping humanity, and just wants to "wage economic warfare".

Last time I checked, it was ourselves (USA) waging economic warfare on 2/3rds of the world.

I dont get this cope people have where people have this idea that its impossible for a Chinese company (that make billions of dollars) to have done something by their own merit, but instead its always some Chinese Communist Party conspiracy where the main goal is to destroy America.

Lay off twitter for a bit.

drstewart 1 hour ago | parent

>Up until recently the Chinese government wasn't even that invested in these companies

>Last time I checked, it was ourselves (USA) waging economic warefare on 2/3rds of the world.

Up until recently the USA Wasn't waging economic "warefare" on 2/3rds of the world

lifeisloving 1 hour ago | parent

The USA has been using financial sanctions, aka, financial warfare on anyone it's deemed an enemy for going on 4 decades.

drstewart 1 hour ago | parent

China has been owning and controlling key companies in its industry for going on 6 decades.

lifeisloving 1 hour ago | parent

Every country does this. Do you think the US government doesnt fund, regulate and control key companies?

China is not a threat to you, or anyone in the West.

infecto 1 hour ago | parent

Not sure why so many people will vehemently refuse this idea. I won’t say it’s 100% true but it would be foolish to dismiss it. China is very much an adversary to America and has made it pretty clear they want to be a dominant leader of not the new world leader. Not here to evaluate what is good or bad. Keep in mind historically China has aggressively fostered industry (not unlike the west) but sometimes even more aggressively.

tsunamifury 1 hour ago | parent

Your just saying it’s beating america at its own game and crying fowl.

lifeisloving 1 hour ago | parent

Americans need to travel to China. The Chinese have zero issues with us. They quite like Americans. This is such a weird propagandist take. Idk if you remember but both country's leaders just had a slumber party for 3 days in DC. This is not what enemies do.

Not even our leaders say China is an enemy, ita mostly businessmen who are scared of competition and trying to regulate chinese out of their markets so they can make more money milking us.

infecto 51 minutes ago | parent

I have been to China many times. The citizens and visiting the country has nothing to do with global politics. Your take is just as propagandist as any other. China is not unlike the US and China has also made it subtly clear their desire to be a dominant global force. I am not marking judgement on it but don’t be a fool thinking that China is not some level of threat. This is how these discussions become weird. I don’t think China is going to blow up the US and I think it’s often a weird talking point by some US politicians but I also don’t think they are a peaceful actor but folks like you will suggest I am repeating propaganda. No, just pointing out that if you look at their language and actions they are an actor to pay attention to. Just because leaders meet means nothing.

lifeisloving 31 minutes ago | parent

Sounds like some Falun Gong conspiracy. Im not worried about China.

fearmerchant 50 minutes ago | parent

The same is true of the Iranian people. There's sometimes a difference between the government and their own citizens.

kaffekaka 1 hour ago | parent

Well, US models are economic warfare too, of course.

sixothree 1 hour ago | parent

> are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government

We hear this about literally every industry the Chinese excel in - that it's only because the government subsidizes them that they succeed. For chip manufacturing, for batteries, for EVs, for solar, for AI. I don't see how the chinese government can afford to subsidize all of these industries and still have them contribute to the GDP.

ygjb 1 hour ago | parent

Well, they are helping 17% of the world's population, and the US is currently actively engaged in trade wars and economic warfare or explicitly attempting to leverage it's hegemony against its long term alliea for short term gain.

There is as much to criticize about American hyper scalers and AI labs and the lack of interest in helping humanity or contributing to open source, but that might not be as popular an opinions on this site.

gpugreg 1 hour ago | parent

Only 17%? I'd say driving down the price of AI helps at least 95% of the world's population. It certainly helps me.

benterix 57 minutes ago | parent

I assume 17% is roughly the percentage of people that use LLMs globally (the numbers vary between 15 and 20 percent).

bredren 44 minutes ago | parent

Amazingly low, given potential impact. Where is this use concentrated? Who has the best data on use right now.

1234letshaveatw 28 minutes ago | parent

I suppose in some sense preventing nuclear holocaust is a short term gain...

throwa356262 1 hour ago | parent

If you think about it, the US labs are heavily subsidised too. Not only they receive billions in state funding, the administration is also prepared to engage in trade wars to help them.

I think the Chinese government is backing their labs by less direct means. For example cheap electricity and investing in chip manufacturers such as Huawei and cxmt.

Deepseek specifically, is known to operate with minimal resources. The entire company has around 160 employees and every model they release must break even within ten months.

parineum 1 hour ago | parent

> I think the Chinese government is backing their labs by less direct means.

It may be that the effect of the backing in both places is essentially equal but this statement is strange. The Chinese government invests directly in Deepseek[1]. Notice the article, in addition to saying the CCP is investing, says Tencent is also a major backer. CCP owns a golden share of Tencent.

[1]https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/deepseek-funding-round.html

atwrk 58 minutes ago | parent

Ok, but Trump stated that the US is in active talks to take over parts of both OpenAI and Anthropic, too: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/trump-open-ai-altman-stake.h...

50or05 1 hour ago | parent

I'm pretty sure, the training/fine tune through Claude/OpenAi would not be possible without the army/China's hacking teams (and legal protection). So it's more than just a cheap electricity.

Supporting deepseek is just like supporting the Chinese army, no need for that. Though it goes both ways, OpenAi subscription just lowers the cost of the US army as well.

metobehonest 1 hour ago | parent

>Supporting deepseek is just like supporting the Chinese army

Good, where do I sign up? At least they aren't exploding little children and generating chaos in the oil market.

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/anthropi...

ndriscoll 52 minutes ago | parent

Sorry, are you saying that it's a subsidy that it's legal for them to distill other models, or what? It's not even clear that there's any kind of protection for models in Western countries. Why would they be worried about the legality of distillation? And what does the army have to do with distilling models? Like you're saying it's a subsidy that China protects their borders from invasion by the US?

It's not a subsidy for the Chinese to say they're going to ignore our IP laws. It's a subsidy for us to say we're going to make them and try to push them on the world. It's literally granting a monopoly by legal force. It's very obviously not aligned with the interests of the American people, while China releasing things in the open is.

ismael_rr 51 minutes ago | parent

Same with the US legal system protecting Anthropic from copyright laws from all the books and other stuff used for pretraining...

IOT_Apprentice 32 minutes ago | parent

The Chinese army isn’t bombing countries around the world or overthrowing governments and stealing gold and oil around the planet. Meanwhile the US military is doing so and is preparing to Do more of that. The Chinese have a rational approach to trade, national infrastructure, education, safety nets, healthcare and much more.

sys32768 4 minutes ago | parent

China also has a very "rational" approach to dissidents, Tibetan activists, Uyghurs, Hong Kong pro-democracy activists, and Taiwan.

dataviz1000 46 minutes ago | parent

SpaceX has been awarded roughly $22 billion to nearly $30 billion in cumulative public federal contracts, the $280 billion CHIP act, and who knows how much the CIA + NSA are spending.

philipallstar 37 minutes ago | parent

Awarded that for doing work, though, not to clone someone else's work and release it for less money.

dataviz1000 25 minutes ago | parent

> not to clone someone else's work

Ironically your comment will be cloned and used for training.

throwa356262 20 minutes ago | parent

I think this is different for different labs. Some innovate while others copy.

Same goes for US labs, not everyone are as innovative as google deepmind:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/04/30/elo...

ta20240528 15 minutes ago | parent

Whose work on KV-cache reduction did Deepskeep clone? Please be specific.

reacharavindh 1 hour ago | parent

I’m neither in the camp of Chinese or the Americans(collective West) in general..

As a neutral party, this characterization is crazy.

As if the AI companies - Claude and OpenAI are guardians of freedom and humanity and very charitable to the global society without any self interests… “Chinese models are subsidized by the Chinese Government, therefore they’re inherently bad for humanity” is a highly propagandist argument. The politics of US vs China may be whatever it is in reality.. You have one company releasing their models for cheap, actually open sourcing their trained weights, and publishing details of their optimizations and learnings for others to use. The other camp actively “aligning” their models, nerfing their capabilities, hyping their swarm activities from poor sandboxes, and trying their best to lock users into their harnesses and walled platforms. They are subsidized by the capitalist VCs who are essentially waiting for their payouts..

At some point, one has to see things for what they are and evaluate their own reasoning..

I’m happy to stay provider agnostic, try all models and cheer any useful progress as open as possible.

bparsons 1 hour ago | parent

A conspiracy to make the US look bad by being better at producing all the goods and services the world needs at a reasonable price. Have they no shame?

gabriel666smith 1 hour ago | parent

> The reason they release the AI models is economic warfare against US, not because of charity or kindness

There are many other reasons Chinese companies releasing models open-source or open-weight makes strategic sense.

A really easy-to-understand example is a company who has a near-monopoly on "serving video content" releasing a video model openly.

If you can be relatively certain that video content created by a model (which you have trained, using data from your own platform) will be ultimately served on your own platform, thus generating revenue from watch-hours, it makes sense to make those models as widely-available as possible.

It's also a net-positive if people use your public research to build better video models, because - again - you are reasonably certain that the even-better content those new models produce will be watched on your platform.

The alternative would making models harder to access and learn from (broadly, the current western model). Many would argue that Google, in choosing to not optimise its video generation models for "availability", is directly causing less content to be uploaded to YouTube. This is the trade-off.

I don't know much about DeepSeek's financing specifically, which obviously doesn't release video models - so I don't know how directly this analogy runs, or who directly benefits from the extremely evident rising tide that the public release of DeepSeek's research creates. However, this does not negate the broader rising-tide effect of the scientific method.

It's certainly also true that it's geopolitically beneficial to be able to undercut American labs' models. If I ran a global superpower, I would probably want my country to be technologically competitive too.

But Chinese companies are already serving a huge volume of customers in a complex, existing marketplace, before even thinking about the US market, and it's overly simplistic to assume that their entire strategy revolves around economic warfare directed specifically at the US. It's more nuanced than that.

This is, of course, without even getting into opening the can-of-worms around whether US economic policy also results in the US state functionally subsidising technological innovation, how comparable that is to China's model, etc.

vrganj 1 hour ago | parent

What if economic warfare against the US does help humanity?

Why are we assuming a strong US is necessarily good? As a European, I have seen plenty of evidence against that stance lately.

I understand that Americans might prefer a strong US. But conflating them with humanity is a leap that I don't think one can make without any backing.

fearmerchant 55 minutes ago | parent

What evidence is that? Please share.

piva00 1 hour ago | parent

Framing it that way hides all the levers used to tilt the playing field for US companies, no?

The government that removed restrictions on how private companies can access capital after a certain scale (the JOBS Act), that removed the need for private companies to report as if they were a public company after a shareholder threshold was crossed, superpowering the access of wealthy private investors to get in earlier in a growing company while at the same blocking the public from participating in funding growing enterprises at an earlier stage (since it required companies to IPO much earlier to access capital) which allowed retail investors to also reap the rewards on funding them early when they grew to become behemoths (like Amazon, Meta/Facebook, Google, etc.).

It's not fair in either place, the USA has its own model of unfairness, China has a completely different one. The difference is that in the USA the government allows private investors to become more powerful than the State (outside of the monopoly of violence) while plunging the rest of society into increasingly more precarious lives while in China the State is the power and its legitimacy only exists while the population feel they have a better life.

atwrk 1 hour ago | parent

IMO the selective enforcement of regulatory requirements should be added to the list. Observing from the outside, I have a hard time believing that e.g. musks gas powered data centers really follow all the environmental laws, for example, or that the authorities really see no grounds for indictment if Altmans company hacks hundreds of third parties, or that there's really no one at the SEC having a problem with Anthropics fear mongering prior to the IPO.

shwaj 8 minutes ago | parent

In a list describing how the USA system works, sure: selective enforcement is there.

As a differentiator from the Chinese system, not so much. For two otherwise equal companies, the one that says things against the party line will experience selective enforcement too.

juiceland 1 hour ago | parent

> The reason they release the AI models is economic warfare against US

The story is so much more complicated than that, to the point that this economic warfare theory is basically a meme.

Chinese models are open because they don’t have a choice. “When you trail the frontier, openness maximizes reputation per unit of capability. The moment you lead, you close.” [0]

[0] https://earnedintuition.substack.com/p/involution-without-ex...

sicktriple 1 hour ago | parent

Economic warfare against the US is charity and kindness to a sizable portion of the world's population, especially when the US uses it's global hegemony as warfare against them. Neither system is perfect, but lets not be disingenuous.

waterheater 1 hour ago | parent

Precisely. It's similar to their practice of aluminum dumping to depress US aluminum prices, which causes our aluminum mines and mills to close.

yomismoaqui 1 hour ago | parent

I like when bad intentions produce good results, I'm tired of seeing the opposite in practice.

NicoJuicy 1 hour ago | parent

US is basically doing economic warfare and bullying against everyone else ATM :)

lbreakjai 1 hour ago | parent

And OpenAI and Anthropic are just in for the love of the game? Our of sheer desire to help humanity?

1234letshaveatw 24 minutes ago | parent

Obviously not but they employ American researchers and aren't beholden to the CCP

SecretDreams 1 hour ago | parent

Meanwhile, American AI models are heavily subsidized by stock market speculation. Ultimately, the subsidies from both countries are flowing out of the pockets of individuals.

fearmerchant 49 minutes ago | parent

That's an interesting definition of subsidized. I don't thing I've ever heard it used like that before.

broabprobe 1 hour ago | parent

At some point though _the purpose of a system is what it does_, regardless of their intent.

shmel 1 hour ago | parent

I'm not sure "subsidised" is the right word. If a government funds research and the results are released openly, that's just publicly funded research. It's how a lot of science works in the US and Europe too.

sourdecor 1 hour ago | parent

If your belief is accurate, we should expect China to short the IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI and release better frontier models immediately after their IPOs.

Does anyone think that likely? I have no clue or bias.

pianopatrick 39 minutes ago | parent

I don't think that's likely because my understanding is that Chinese people in mainland China have a tricky time shorting American stocks due to Chinese capital controls.

vagrantJin 1 hour ago | parent

> DeepSeek, and other Chinese models, are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government.

Yes, because everything China does is against the US. That's all they think about day and night. God forbid they want to corner the global market or have a genuine business case. How dare they provide options for those who can't afford a measly $200 a month? How can we let Chinese labs publish research for free for the whole world so that they can benefit? The nerve! To think they can use soft power instead of military might! I mean, Anthropic and OpenAI are the last bastions of human kindness and charity. Right?

Right?

fluidcruft 1 hour ago | parent

That would have been a scathing criticism if anyone believed any of the American companies have the goal of helping humanity or open-source.

Notwithstanding that Chinese publishing methods actually does help both humanity and open-source.

mcv 1 hour ago | parent

Whatever their reason, I'm glad they do it. This tech shouldn't be monopolised by a handful of closed, profit-seeking corporations.

1234letshaveatw 22 minutes ago | parent

And likewise, it shouldn't be monopolized by the CCP

benterix 1 hour ago | parent

It's one of these rare cases where intention is not what is the most important - the net benefit for consumers and companies outside of the USA is indisputable.

Buttons840 58 minutes ago | parent

If the means of achieving their goal are sometimes mistaken for charity and kindness... are they the good guys?

spyckie2 53 minutes ago | parent

To be completely fair, write this kind of paragraph for every AI category. Would love to see your take.

subarctic 45 minutes ago | parent

Economic warfare against the US? I mean maybe against specific US companies and stakeholders but on the whole it seems like it's good for the US economy as well as the rest of the world, kind of like supplying free electricity would be

Shitty-kitty 42 minutes ago | parent

The open-weight models are a great boon to all American companies other than a handfull of Mega Corps in the A.I business. Care to explain how this is "economic warfare against the U.S"

1234letshaveatw 27 minutes ago | parent

Do you not see the risk inherit in sourcing everything from a antagonist?

IOT_Apprentice 40 minutes ago | parent

Why the anti China propaganda from you? The United States is doing the same thing here and making American multi-billionaires even wealthier. The greed of American AI, GPU and memory and storage corporations is a black hole on availability to humans around the World. The result is a massive financial bubble promoted by the American Government to the detriment of our citizens. The USA has an AI ponzy scheme shuffling the same money between data center owners (Oracle & X), Nvidia and memory & storage vendors.

ozgung 36 minutes ago | parent

What's wrong with governments subsidizing scientific work?

You think extremely US-centric. China has a different economic model than US and your rules for a specific kind of Capitalism may not apply to them. You assume a country of 1.4 Billion people is obsessed with a couple of foreign AI companies. What if they don't care.

MomsAVoxell 27 minutes ago | parent

How do you know? You’re not speaking for the Chinese government, are you?

sajithdilshan 23 minutes ago | parent

Same goes for the US companies as well. Current US administration wants US to win the AI race at any cost and China is the only competitor left in the race. Winners always write the history or in this case the future of humanity

jetdeng 14 minutes ago | parent

At least DeepSeek didn't build its models on government subsidies. It came out of a quantitative hedge fund, so funding was never really an issue for them.

scotty79 14 minutes ago | parent

I wish US was rich enough to subsidise development of open source science and useful open AI models. I wouldn't mind US waging this kind of wconomic warefare against China or everyone else on the world.

Charity and kindness is not a motivation, it's an outcome of what you do.

horacemorace 9 minutes ago | parent

It just so happens that helping open source is the result. Image how far behind we’d (the hackers, not the moneymen) be as a sharing community be without them.

swalsh 1 hour ago | parent

They're trying to pull digitally what they already pulled physically. The reason we can't manufacture a grill brush for a reasonable price is the result of years of Americans choosing the cheapest price. We gave up our manufacture base. They want us to give up our labs.

stanac 1 hour ago | parent

Except they are open with the tech which is easy to replicate. All new models lowering cache prices is the result of DeepSeek's publications.

toenail 1 hour ago | parent

Deindustrializing a country is not something consumers can achieve. It starts at the top level, with politicians who construct a financial system where it's more profitable to speculate than to build or invest in real businesses.

wg0 57 minutes ago | parent

US economy is driven on quarter to quarter short-sightedness of stock gamblers and CEOs that have to secure their bonuses and perks.

Its them who chose to outsource heavily, not US consumers.

There are no victims here however, both benefited from the arrangement. The consumers and capitalists.

tokai 1 hour ago | parent

>instruction manuals in paper form

So the most common way to publish manuals?

jorl17 1 hour ago | parent

In research paper form.

ZiiS 1 hour ago | parent

I think the mean 'paper' in the scientific journal meaning; these are unfortunately often extremely bad 'instruction manuals'.

velcrovan 1 hour ago | parent

Maybe 30 years ago

xnx 1 hour ago | parent

There would be a lot of competition even without DeepSeek. Workers can freely exfiltrate trade secrets without noncompetes in California.

apexalpha 1 hour ago | parent

Proprietary competition, yes.

dvduval 1 hour ago | parent

So boring to see conversations moved over to Chinese models when that’s not even what we’re talking about here. This is about Mistral.

swingandamiss 59 minutes ago | parent

Europeans are irrelevant these days, surpassed by China, S Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. Europe is coasting on former glory and now has regulated itself to death and vacationed its advantages away.

kirill5pol 22 minutes ago | parent

Evidently not given that this model is on the open source frontier.

swingandamiss 16 minutes ago | parent

cost is higher than Chinese models that are better

typ 1 hour ago | parent

Architectural/algorithmic tweaks do advance the efficiency frontier nicely. But raw intelligence mostly comes from data (not just its sheer quantity, but also how it's curated & cleansed) and the scaling law. The know-how about data curation doesn't seem to get published much, even among the open-weight labs, though.

porridgeraisin 1 hour ago | parent

This. Even in the efficiency frontier, it is a lot of data curation that actually makes many of those tweaks actually work at scale in practice.

fittom 1 hour ago | parent

Also, the field moves fast, but slower than people do. Researchers and engineers switch companies every year or two, and the know-how walks out the door with them.

baxtr 47 minutes ago | parent

I think it might have accelerated things but on a much more basic level, there seems to be no real moat in synthesizing the world’s knowledge into LLMs.

scotty79 18 minutes ago | parent

I think the moat is going to be compute. So far compute needed to push the frontier is still extremely cheap so the capital can afford to spread its bets. But when further improvement is going to cost in trillions, capital will have to pick a winner and bet only on him. It won't be a matter of finding the best bet, it will be a matter of survival.

This will cause the picked winner to get massively ahead with sheer compute alone used both for training and inference dedicated to recursive self improvement.

pennomi 14 minutes ago | parent

Surely there is a point where algorithmic improvements will be more cost effective than buying more hardware.

bushbaba 10 minutes ago | parent

Not just compute but energy. Most of Europe has no access to the cost effective power generation needed

jayd16 8 minutes ago | parent

But the old models still exist at trivial marginal cost. The frontier models would need to dominate every price point to really take all and so far they haven't been.

cyanydeez 12 minutes ago | parent

I also think we're seeing the sigmoid approaching.

jamienk 26 minutes ago | parent

I'm not sure I like this framing - so much of AI research has been academic, in the open, building on others people's work. Much less comp sci generally, math & philosophy, etc. The idea that rich companies can just build stuff in secret because they have resources is a fantasy.

bushbaba 11 minutes ago | parent

How it should be. Knowledge should not be copyrighted. The world will be a better place with such information democratized

AIblemblio 2 hours ago | parent

For sure people who don't grasp the difference between models, might be stuck in 'good enough' models.

But Opus 5.5/GPT is such a game changer in comparison to sooo many others, its still a moat for now.

eigenspace 2 hours ago | parent

I agree that Opus and GPT are almsot surely better, but so many real users are nervous enough about giving Anthropic and OpenAI access to all of their internal information that they may be willing to stomach worse models if it gives them more security.

The real question is if this model is good enough that it can still accelerate work, and not be a hindrance to real work like older Mistral models often were.

If they can do that, they'll have customers.

hajile 52 minutes ago | parent

The Navier-Stokes fiasco made me push for local/controlled models very hard. "Can't rule out" that they stole data (backed up by their backdoor offers of sharing credit).

If these companies will steal from deep pockets like Disney or Sony (some of the most infamously litigious copyright trolls to ever exist), they won't think twice of stealing every bit of code you upload to them.

If your code passes through an AI company's servers, you can assume you just gave it to them. In turn, when your competitor tries to copy that new feature you just added, the AI is now trained in exactly how to copy you and eliminate your competitive edge. Unlike your employees, the AI isn't bound by the same rules and even if it were and violated them, your company probably doesn't have enough money to prove it in court (and that's if we somehow reverse some of the stupid "AI is the most transformative use of copyright I've ever seen" judges who have drunk the coolaid).

Most companies could build the compute to run GLM or Kimi models for way less than the potential loss due to IP theft from using third-party systems.

FabHK 43 minutes ago | parent

If I'm not mistaken, they did rule out that they stole data from the mathematicians in question.

eigenspace 37 minutes ago | parent

"We investigated ourselves and determined that we are not to blame"

sashank_1509 24 minutes ago | parent

I would also add to this, there are ways to use customer data to improve your model outside of just using it as “training-data”.

A simple loophole, use the code to create an RLVR environment where the resultant code is the end goal / max reward. Technically the customer data is never trained upon, but effectively you’re using it. Even better, use the code as a seed to generate synthetic data similar to it and use that synthetic data as rewards in an RLVR model.

Unless you can host the ChatGPT model on your own servers, which I know some enterprises are doing, I don’t think there’s any hope of protecting your data / competitive advantage from these frontier companies. Better to be paranoid, than be commodified by these companies.

spiderfarmer 2 hours ago | parent

Less and less work requires a frontier model though.

senordevnyc 2 hours ago | parent

Yeah, I agree with this. I think the "the models are good enough" narrative is a myth. I've heard it so many times over the last year, but the model number keeps changing...

There is no ceiling on what you can accomplish with more intelligence, so there will always be a market for the best models, and that market is likely to just keep growing. If Opus 13.5 can one-shot a profitable company or discover a new disease treatment or whatever you can think of that a swarm of relentless super-geniuses could accomplish, companies (and governments) will throw money at it.

I also think there will always be a market for many sub-frontier models that will continue to grow rapidly as well, because "good enough" is definitely a thing for a given task.

suddenlybananas 1 hour ago | parent

>If Opus 13.5 can one-shot a profitable company

No company would ever release such a thing

sajithdilshan 18 minutes ago | parent

One could still argue that models are good enough for a given task. I primarily use Opus at work for writing code and I realized that for my usage the intelligence of Opus 4.8 is more than enough. Sure the newer models are better but I can still do my work with having access to newer models

calgoo 2 hours ago | parent

Please, give it another 6 months and they catch up. The American labs are currently trying everything they can to block others instead of advancing their models, trying to build an artificial moat. The American models are not that great, they are good, and they have a lot of agentic workflows in the back, but its basically a hardware limitation at this point. Once the HW makers catch up, and we can move away from the Nvidia monopoly, things will speed up quite a lot IMO.

senordevnyc 2 hours ago | parent

We've been hearing the line about them only being a few months behind for a year now, during which time O/A have grown their revenue like 10x, haven't they?

ezomode 1 hour ago | parent

The thing is O/A have been much louder on pacing the frontier, lately.

And yes, open weights are still behind, but are catching up.

n6242 1 hour ago | parent

We've also been hearing we're 6 months from AGI for about three years, and here we are.

"Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"

totallykvothe 1 hour ago | parent

Phantom Tollbooth?

_aavaa_ 1 hour ago | parent

Those are two different things. The market is expanding, so even if competitors are catching up, you can have your own revenue, in absolute terms, grow.

u8080 1 hour ago | parent

Just one more release cycle bro, I swear

wg0 2 hours ago | parent

No it is not. Only maybe for the noobs or vibe coders.

People who aren't afraid of rolling their sleeves into any code base? The difference is practically zero.

CharlieDigital 1 hour ago | parent

I agree; yes, I can see that they need a bit less hand holding each cycle, but I also see these "frontier" agents do some absolutely dumb shit that I have to correct and then I'm wondering if I'm the looney one here.

Maybe it's because people stopped watching what their agents are doing and stopped looking at the quality of the output. But I still see agents being absolutely mindless like a junior dev.

Recent example: it updated an an API to add newly released models to the backend. There's a list of models that require specific configuration for the reasoning effort and temperature or the API call fails. GPT 6.1 Sol misses this and code fails at runtime because the newer models need to be added to the list for special handling of temp and reasoning. Fixes it for one model and tests it for that model using an E2E test. But doesn't test the other models that were added for the same error condition...I had to explicitly ask it to do so and it finds them and adds them to the list and says "that's on me."

Yeah, not that smart.

AIblemblio 37 minutes ago | parent

Try a bigger code base or more complex stuff and you will easily see that the solution, speed and amount of problems Opus5.5 solves vs older models is relevant.

Slartie 30 minutes ago | parent

I am frequently running agents on a multi-microservice application workspace where I really need the 1M context windows, because they are filled to the brim when implementing features that require changes on several services and APIs.

This works fine with Opus 5.5. But it also works fine with GPT 6.1 Sol, Kimi K3 and MiMo 2.6 Pro.

It doesn't work equally well with Sonnet 5.5, interestingly.

Aldipower 1 hour ago | parent

Despite Opus 5.5 got really bad the last days for me. Looks like they nerfed it again. This is extremely unreliable.

r2_pilot 1 hour ago | parent

Or maybe they secretly believe you are trying to distill their models and are deliberately degrading your experience. Who knows with them?

Aldipower 1 hour ago | parent

You are laughing. Until it happens to you! :-)

wavemode 1 hour ago | parent

People say this exact thing every single time a new frontier model comes out.

SyneRyder 1 hour ago | parent

You've got to think the comments about "good enough" are people who have not yet tried Opus 5.5. I haven't been this struck by a step change since 4.5/4.6. It's a bigger jump even than when Fable first arrived.

As for Mistral - I got really excited when they said Large 4 was focusing on being #1 in cybersecurity, because that's somewhere that they genuinely could edge out Anthropic & OpenAI. Have it actually solve problems, instead of Anthropic flagging "you tried to find a null pointer exception bug in your own code, we're now reporting you to the US government". But on the Mistral benchmarks I'm seeing, this looks very disappointing, but at least they haven't entirely given up. I genuinely thought Mistral had given up on new general models. They need to learn the bitter lesson all over again.

Systemerror7A69 1 hour ago | parent

I feel like the "good enough" argument isn't about how big the gap between models is but about how good they are at solving the tasks at hand.

The capabilities of all models increasing so much all the time means there are simply less and less tasks you need a frontier model for.

Even if Opus 5.5 is 500x better than Deepseek, if deepseek can solve all my problems, why do I need to pay for more?

user43928 1 hour ago | parent

Many on HN still have the opinion that you must understand every line of code in the project, and that all is lost should you merge code that wasn't reviewed.

Obviously any model will do if you use it as a better autocomplete.

I believe that there is a large gap in expectations between different workflows.

Until the AI like reads my mind and produces perfectly production ready apps with minimal intervention from my side, there is still going to be room for improvement.

kragen 52 minutes ago | parent

If Opus 5.5 is 500x better than Deepseek, but Deepseek can solve all your problems, maybe you need to work on better problems. If you don't, and you're in business, your competitors will work on the better problems. If you're an employee, your employer might prefer to pay Anthropic instead of you. If you're doing projects you're interested in, you can tackle more ambitious projects with a more capable model.

This morning I elicited a microkernel operating system from Opus 5.5. Well, mostly. It doesn't implement task switching yet; we'll see if it runs into a wall at some point. But it boots in QEMU, and it's running a user process in ring 3 and serving web pages.

sashank_1509 34 minutes ago | parent

Yeah no, if you elicit Opus 5.5 , anyone else can, and you have no moat either.

But if on the other hand, I mostly use my human intelligence and just need a dumb model to complement my human intelligence at low cost and high speed (say review every commit to catch obvious bugs), I have a much better chance of building an actual moat than you do.

But outside of coding, it’s even more clear that you don’t need frontier intelligence. My customer service agent is very happy with a 100B param Deepseek flash model, thank you!

skerit 1 hour ago | parent

> I haven't been this struck by a step change since 4.5/4.6. It's a bigger jump even than when Fable first arrived.

I had the exact same experience. And unlike Fable, it doesn't gobble up your entire usage limit in a few hours.

I always wonder what the "good enough" people are actually using it for.

sashank_1509 30 minutes ago | parent

“Good enough” as in we don’t see any point in 1-shotting everything we want to build in lightning speed. If Opus 5.5 can 1 shot it then that product is essentially commodified, no point in any one building it except as an internal tool.

If Opus can’t 1-shot it, then it must rely on our human intelligence which can be complemented well enough with a dumb model as a frontier model.

eigenspace 1 hour ago | parent

I use Opus 5.5 daily for my job. I am aware (and in awe of) it's capabilities.

Look at the context in which I used that term 'good enough'.

What i was saying is that there are tasks for which a dumber model can be good enough, and for organizations with sovereignty/ privacy concerns, those concerns can be strong enough to incentivize the use of a dumber model.

bakugo 1 hour ago | parent

> X is such a game changer

I hear this literally every other week about whatever the newest FoTM model is.

Unless you can provide concrete examples of things you can do with them that you simply couldn't do with last week's model, it's absolutely meaningless.

spaceman_2020 1 hour ago | parent

My todo app generator does not need opus 5.5

ygjb 1 hour ago | parent

It's an improvement, but game changer might be a bit of a stretch. If I lost access to Anthropic or OpenAI models tomorrow, I would be annoyed, but would reach for a slightly inferior model. Last year I wouldnt be able to say the same, and rhe challenge is that the moat is drying up fast. Whether its general improvements in model training by other competitors, or straight up distillation of SOTA models, the moat is shrinking and the available capital and spend for American model providers is going to dry up quickly as competing good enough models are adopted by more consumers.

It's especially the case as more non-Americans look to self hosted models and domestic cloud inference providers using open models that the US providers who are still leading the charge need to drastically drop their prices and find a path to profitability in order to maintain their lead and retain the advantage they had as AI turns into a commodity (which is happening faster than I think even the frontier labs initially predicted).

segmondy 1 hour ago | parent

I use Opus 5.5 at work.

I use MiMov2.6Pro, DeepSeekv4.1Flash, GLM5.3, Hy4, Qwen3.8 and KimiK3 at home. Opus5.5 is not a game changer.

AIblemblio 44 minutes ago | parent

I do a broad amount of diverse experiments/projects I always wanted to do and throwing Opus5.5 against it just works

I have to admit, Sonnet got really good too.

But Opus just uses tools, a broad spectrum of it, etc. it feels like sure if you add some router behind it you could split it up if you need to but if you give me the choice, its opus allll day long.

senordevnyc 2 hours ago | parent

On a purely technical level, maybe? But in terms of actual revenue, is there really any chance of anyone catching the big labs?

Obviously, this is only a valid question if you don't believe that open weights are about to eat their lunch and their revenue is about to collapse, or they're running a super unprofitable ponzi scheme propped up by investor money that's about to collapse like a house of cards. I don't find those positions credible at all though.

If you do, then this question isn't really for you, as I'm more interested in thoughts from those who think that OpenAI and Anthropic in particular are about to be the largest companies on earth in a couple years. Could anyone catch them at that point?

swiftcoder 2 hours ago | parent

> But in terms of actual revenue, is there really any chance of anyone catching the big labs?

I don't know about revenue, but I suspect multiple other labs are already beating OpenAI/Anthropic on profitability. Staying on the frontier is expensive, and it's hard to recoup those R&D costs when you have a bunch of other labs nipping at your heels.

If you concede the previous point, then the only way for OpenAI/Anthropic to keep growing long term is to swallow the whole economy (i.e. mass job replacemnt), and that's a bet I wouldn't take.

senordevnyc 2 hours ago | parent

Maybe. I can't freaking wait for the IPO filings so we can finally put all this to rest. (haha, like that'll actually put it to rest on HN, but at least we'll have better data)

richardw 1 hour ago | parent

I think the actual plan is to swallow a good portion of the job market. It’s the only thing that makes sense and I hear VC podcast debates on which percentage of jobs justifies the market cap.

WarmWash 2 hours ago | parent

No, because compute, not model ability, is the moat.

The second moat is convenience, which all the big labs make it (comparatively) easy to glide into their models.

notfromhere 1 hour ago | parent

I don’t know if convenient is a moat when it makes switching very easy

eigenspace 2 hours ago | parent

The big lab revenue may not be catchable, but im not sure it needs to be.

If they can carve out a niche of industrial and governmental partners who rely on them for sovereignty reasons, it may be enough.

senordevnyc 2 hours ago | parent

I completely agree, I think AI is a vast ecosystem will all kinds of profitable niches and sub-markets.

notfromhere 1 hour ago | parent

They are very unprofitable…? I don’t think that’s really in dispute. We haven’t yet seen a profitable frontier lab and model pricing remains fairly subsidized

qoez 1 hour ago | parent

Seems silly not to have predicted that 10 years ago. I feel like it's long been obvious that smarter models being available will mean way easier cheap synthetic data and access to tools that will speed up competitors as well as consumers.

divbzero 1 hour ago | parent

Yes, so far the competitive dynamics feel more like cloud computing than web search.

doctorpangloss 1 hour ago | parent

How do you figure? I haven't met a single person who doesn't use Claude or Codex for programming in any serious way.

eigenspace 1 hour ago | parent

Then you dont know people working on highly sensitive info with stringent privancy concerns.

saberience 1 hour ago | parent

I mean, Mistral is about 9-12 months behind here when you look at its overall benchmarks versus the models released around a year ago.

kaffekaka 1 hour ago | parent

Sounds ok to me. Claude was fine at the start of the year, and now with Mistral you also get EU sovereignty? I'll take that.

amelius 1 hour ago | parent

> have not been a winner-take-all runaway acceleration game where catchup is impossible

From the Mistral site:

> ML4 was trained from scratch on 3,800 NVIDIA Grace Blackwell GPUs in Mistral’s own datacenters in Europe.

It is pretty capital intensive!

everfrustrated 1 hour ago | parent

According to Grok thats 7-10 MW. Tiny numbers.

To put that into context, the last wave of capacity SpaceXAI added 400-450 MW.

amelius 43 minutes ago | parent

But how much of that are they using for training versus inference? They're serving quite a large user base.

bjenkins358 1 hour ago | parent

I’m pretty impressed that they managed to get that close to the frontier with such a small cluster!

eigenspace 19 minutes ago | parent

That cluster is literally orders of magnitude smaller than the compute pools used by Anthropic or OpenAI.

cyanydeez 34 minutes ago | parent

I think it's a mistaken belief that AI as we found it is the exponential runaway train.

So it makes sense, since all you need is compute, that there's a ceiling and specialization is going to be more valuable then some super AGI.

Especially since the worst people seem to be the ones who think they'll all run away with the bag.

samplifier 30 minutes ago | parent

What do you mean "good enough"? Did you mean "large enough"? ;)

Disclaimer: I'm not sure how much of an IYKYK factor applies to this joke.

StrauXX 4 minutes ago | parent

We haven't reached RSI yet. Once any entity reaches RSI, the runway scenario will happen.

apexalpha 2 hours ago | parent

Excited to hear this!

I barely use anything outside of cheap Chinese models on OpenRouter anymore. They are simply (more than) good enough for most of the things I do.

This model looks reasonably cheap. Though not deepseek levels.

Going to test it with Hermes, wondering where it will land in term of capability.

Bon chance, Mistral!

jakozaur 2 hours ago | parent

A strong competitor in cybersecurity as an alternative to GLM-5.3 (Mistral reports 82% on CyberGym-E2E). Visual grounding is also impressive (42% on Dense 200 vs. 41% for GPT-6 Astra).

Otherwise, behind on the broader Pareto frontier, but not by much (Vals Index: 48.05% vs. GLM-5.3’s 53.51%; $13.78 vs. $7.25 per test). Many companies will prefer it over Chinease models.

drob518 1 hour ago | parent

That was about my conclusion as well: Slightly less than GLM 5.3 performance but made in Europe. So, maybe it answers Tiananmen Square questions correctly, and in French. All in all, a reasonable model, but not frontier.

icannotstandit 1 hour ago | parent

"..answers Tiananmen square questions correctly.."- but lies about Ukraine, EU, and about you, americans..

I live in EU, use for my personal needs chinese models only, and don't plan to move to any of the ones allied with the Pentagon or its european counterparts.

steinvakt2 1 hour ago | parent

What are you talking about lol

icannotstandit 1 hour ago | parent

Exactly what you read

Barbing 1 hour ago | parent

Have a prompt and excerpt of falsehood in response for each?

kouteiheika 1 hour ago | parent

> So, maybe it answers Tiananmen Square questions correctly

What would you consider a "correct" answer? I just asked deepseek-v4.1-flash asking it what happened (without mentioning the word "protest"; here are some excerpts of what it said:

> In April 1989, students in Beijing began demonstrations after the death of Hu Yaobang, a former Communist Party general secretary. The protests grew. [..] Estimates from other sources range from hundreds to several thousand deaths. [..] The Chinese government describes the events as a counter-revolutionary riot and says the military action was necessary to restore stability. It restricts public discussion of the events inside China. Many other governments, human rights organizations, and observers describe the events as a violent suppression of peaceful protests.

So, let's see... it calls it a "protest", mentions the number of deaths, and even mentions the censorship of the topic by the CCP.

zkmon 2 hours ago | parent

Europe needs a lot of these. Quickly. Way to go, Mistral! Keep 'em coming.

spiderfarmer 2 hours ago | parent

> Europe needs a lot of these.

Europe needs profitable AI companies, not money pits.

WinstonSmith84 1 hour ago | parent

there are no profitable AI companies at the moment ... This is the exact problem of European startups, trying to make them profitable from day 1 while American counterparts (and Chinese) keep bleeding money for years. Europe will never have a Tesla, a Google or an Amazon with that mindset.

mopsi 1 hour ago | parent

  > Europe will never have a Tesla, a Google or an Amazon with that mindset.
Great companies, if you have a fetish for peeing into a bottle.

fancyfredbot 1 hour ago | parent

Pithy, but only really applicable to Amazon. I'll give you some tips for future attacks.

I'm not actually sure Tesla is a great company from any perspective so should be easy to find another sick burn for them.

Google is going to be a little more difficult. Maybe say something nasty about advertising? Or go for the monopoly angle.

mopsi 1 hour ago | parent

Google treats its customers the same way as Amazon treats its employees. Any sane person stays away from its services because a bot can close an account for no reason, and there will be no recourse. A total shit company, like some illegal IPTV provider: no accountability, and when the service disappears, you have nobody to turn to.

zkmon 44 minutes ago | parent

Very true. Experienced it. Any appeal is like talking to a blackhole.

dmje 1 hour ago | parent

Like the US!

…oh…wait…

jonkoops 1 hour ago | parent

This is the exact mentality that makes the EU fall behind. If you don't want to invest in something until it makes a profit, you don't get the benefits of being a pioneer.

koe123 1 hour ago | parent

Look at the size of our capital markets. That is a suicidal strategy. We dont have to mimic US.

jonkoops 33 minutes ago | parent

There is plenty of capital, it is just not flowing.

TomJansen 1 hour ago | parent

Name 1 AI company that is profitable, and no Meta and Google are not AI companies

fancyfredbot 1 hour ago | parent

The US has made sure that Mistral has a large market in the EU by temporarily preventing non citizens from accessing Fable.

A lot of European companies now want a model the US can't cut off, but also lack trust in Chinese models.

Some of these will self host Mistral but most will pay them by the token. It's not going to be a huge market or a huge margin within that market but probably it'll be enough.

Marha01 52 minutes ago | parent

> Europe needs profitable AI companies, not money pits.

AI is a strategic technology with obvious national security implications. EU should invest in its development whether it's currently profitable or not.

rahen 1 hour ago | parent

I’d rather have one European AI lab like Mistral, with the financial firepower and compute to pretrain its own large models, than 20 weak labs that fine-tune Chinese models.

AI needs big bucks, and Mistral is Europe’s Anthropic.

idbnstra 35 minutes ago | parent

just curious, how do we know that le chonk isn't just a fine-tuned chinese model? and/or distilled from US models?

rahen 32 minutes ago | parent

It's written in the announcement: "ML4 was trained from scratch on 3,800 NVIDIA Grace Blackwell GPUs in Mistral’s own datacenters in Europe".

https://mistral.ai/news/mistral-large-4/

Iolaum 29 minutes ago | parent

Once it's open weight people will be able to inspect and compare it's tokenizer, architecture etc and tell.

alpineman 1 hour ago | parent

Two is enough for foundation models, these guys and Aleph Alpha. The gap is closing.

rvz 1 hour ago | parent

You have to thank the US investors who funded Mistral from the very beginning.

Mistral would have gotten a tiny and measly "EU grant" and ASML would never have invested later had it not been for the US VCs.

60pfennig 51 minutes ago | parent

thank you for this and all the other great gifts the US and its companies have given to the world! we all love the us!

danny_codes 27 minutes ago | parent

Forgot your /s

ofirg 2 hours ago | parent

where does sit on the pareto distribution compered to Le Chaton Fat?

tosh 2 hours ago | parent

sorting the charts like that gives off weird vibes

https://mistral.ai/news/mistral-large-4/

ambicapter 1 hour ago | parent

sorting the chart like what? You just linked to the main page.

ocamoss 1 hour ago | parent

If you scroll down, most of the charts on that page are sorted s.t. Mistral's bar is right next to the worst competitor model, while the best competitor model's bar is positioned on the opposite side.

If one were to be cynical one could say that it's intentionally making Mistral's result look better than it actually is by making it harder to compare the bar heights.

walrus01 2 hours ago | parent

The terminalbench 4.0 score is encouraging as a sign of it not doing anything "stupid" when put in a proper harness.

Luker88 2 hours ago | parent

Mistral Large 4: 1050B, 49 Active

GLM-5.3: 753B, 40 Active

I was hoping for something that hinted at smaller models too, but I guess not.

Any competition is still good, especially now that the USA AI labs are starting to do regulatory capture.

gandreani 1 hour ago | parent

It's competitive!

Good enough to show competence, and instill confidence in the team/company. Later releases can be more efficient.

I think it's a great release with that framing.

baq 1 hour ago | parent

just keep RL frying it should get better...

rahen 48 minutes ago | parent

Give them time. ML 4.0 was just pretrained. Mistral will certainly use it as the base for distillation and RL for smaller, better, more efficient iterations, just as the competition does.

skc 1 hour ago | parent

We're probably fast approaching the scenario where the cheapest models will win out.

dom96 1 hour ago | parent

Excited to test this on my benchmark[1], but I'm guessing it won't fare better than MiMo v2.6 Pro which is currently the best open-weight model as far as I'm concerned.

Why isn't this on openrouter yet? Is there a better router that gets models much quicker?

1 - https://bench.killswitch-lang.org/

petesergeant 1 hour ago | parent

Anyone have any indication when I can get my hands on a developer plan for this?

Havoc 8 minutes ago | parent

They do sell subscriptions I think

rarisma 1 hour ago | parent

le chaton fat is real, my life is complete. Benches look crazy good for 1T.

ThouYS 1 hour ago | parent

Glad to see progress, despite the ever-increasing sabotage by the EU bureaucrats

bdcravens 1 hour ago | parent

Can we consolidate the posts? Currently there's 3 on the front page, basically all pointing to Mistral's messaging in different places.

simjnd 1 hour ago | parent

It's a bit below DeepSeek 4.1 Flash at about twice the size. For a model that was supposed to come out a few months ago this is pretty good. Mistral catching up to the chinese open-weight models is great news. Excited to see how they will build on that!

alpineman 1 hour ago | parent

>> Unofficially ML4, very officially: le Chonk

Honestly just nice to see a leader in this space not take themselves so seriously.

lifeisloving 1 hour ago | parent

Seems hard to get customers at that price range when you're competing with open source models that are 1/2 - 1/3 the price but with similar capabilities.

People usually buy the cheapest, like Deepseek or GLM or they spend on Anthropic/OpenAI subs.. Are these models in the middle getting any users?

On a side note, I wonder if this was the popular free Space Bunny model that left openrouter yesterday.

PunchTornado 45 minutes ago | parent

If you are a EU company worried about your data then mistral is your only option. Think about EU military companies. They can't use US and Chinese models.

c0rruptbytes 22 minutes ago | parent

why couldn’t people just use chinese models rehosted in the EU? They’re open weights so anyone can serve them for any data residency requirement

sixhobbits 1 hour ago | parent

if it's not available yet why have a 'try it today' header at all?

> "Try it today" > > There is still more to come. As we work toward releasing the weights, we will share further details on the model architecture, additional benchmarks, and our post-training methodology.

newtonsmethod 1 hour ago | parent

You can try it on their website, https://console.mistral.ai/playground

It's just that the open-weights aren't yet available (although the long delay is slightly annoying).

pietz 1 hour ago | parent

I mean no disrespect but these are terrible numbers or am I missing something? It seems like Mistral continues to only be relevant for people that want a model trained in Europe. Too bad.

ianpurton 1 hour ago | parent

On Prem. Thats a bid deal for some enterprises.

also the benchmarks are not necessarily indicative of how well the model will perform in its own harness with its own skills.

pietz 1 hour ago | parent

Any open weights model is "on prem".

Second point

simonw 1 hour ago | parent

Surprisingly it only supports reasoning "none" or reasoning "high".

That setting didn't seem to make any real difference - it added a tiny bit of thinking trace and high actually produced less output tokens than none.

The high bicycle frame is better then the none one though.

Pelicans: https://tools.simonwillison.net/markdown-svg-renderer?url=ht...

(Definitely the best I've seen from any Mistral model: https://simonwillison.net/tags/pelican-riding-a-bicycle+mist... )

inknight 46 minutes ago | parent

Why are pelicans almost identical across different models?

Tade0 37 minutes ago | parent

Everyone is stealing from everyone else.

wren6991 37 minutes ago | parent

The benchmark is saturated. Frontier models are tested with an armadillo in fishnet tights jaywalking on Mars.

advisedwang 30 minutes ago | parent

They aren't. You aren't looking closely. For example, the first image does not have the frame of the bike in the correct shape even.

comboy 6 minutes ago | parent

I recently was testing something, asked some models to provide me a single random word..

    claude-opus-5: Lantern
    claude-opus-5-5: Lantern
    claude-fable-5-1: Lantern
    claude-fable-5: Lantern
    gemini-3.8-flash: Zephyr
    gemini: Petrichor
    qwen3.5-dashscope: Zephyr
    glm-5.1: Lantern
    gpt-6-astra: Lantern
    grok-4: octopus
    mimo-v2.5-pro: Breeze
    minimax-m2.5: serendipity
    kimi2.6-or: Gossamer
    grok-4.20: luminescent
    deepseek-v4-flash: serendipity
    deepseek-v4-pro: Endurance
    deepseek-chat: Serendipity

deflator 19 minutes ago | parent

Not bad! I like how it got the motion lines on the correct side. IIRC, many of the other ones you've posted have the motion lines on both sides of the pelican

ianpurton 1 hour ago | parent

Off Topic - The Mistral website - Really nice design. My guess, built by a human.

htrp 1 hour ago | parent

europe finally getting into the race here.

Kim_Bruning 1 hour ago | parent

I tried a quick abbreviated kimbench on their playground before bothering to do the whole thing.

Maybe I didn't really select mistral 4? Either way, failed completely on question 1 and the next 2 questions were completely off base too. I didn't bother to finish.

Not suitable for my purposes I don't think.

dverlaeckt80 1 hour ago | parent

Good to see Europe is at least a little bit still in the game.

https://docs.mistral.ai/inference/model-selection-guide?mode...

Cost is stated at half the price of GLM-5.3, which is quite interesting.

jrflo 1 hour ago | parent

Seems like they've finally made a genuinely competitive model since the original LLM craze, congrats to them! Glad to see some diversification in open weights providers.

jascha_eng 1 hour ago | parent

-5 on omniscience? https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/omniscience

That's not particularly great.

That said I love that they don't seem to restrict cyber capabilities to any degree and even lean into it.

If the best model for cyber attacks is open for everyone to use it just makes us all safer I think. Of course you then also HAVE to use it or otherwise you're vulnerable, which is a great distribution play.

smartbit 1 hour ago | parent

https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/mistral-large-4 for the main stats

                          Inte         Cost
                          llig          per
  Open Weight model       ence  Speed  Task

  Mimo-V.26-Pro            46     47   $0.13
  GLM-5.3 (max)            45     73   $2.01
  DeepSeek 4.1 Flash Max   39    227   $0.27
  Mistral Large 4 Preview  38    116   $1.13

jascha_eng 15 minutes ago | parent

Imo omniscience correlates better to how useful the model is in practice than the intelligence index. But you have to use both together of course.

Jeeetendra 1 hour ago | parent

49b active parameters sounds manageable until you look at the 1t total weights. what hardware does a usable self-hosted setup actually need, especially once you add a long context?

valzam 1 hour ago | parent

What experience have people had with Mistral models for cyber research? are they as constrainted as Anthropic models? I use claude day2day but have the need for a model with fewer guardrails to pentest our own APIs.

quadruple 57 minutes ago | parent

They explicitly lean in to cyber work, and they appear to be very permissive from their marketing:

> This is particularly important in cybersecurity, where provider-level refusals can block legitimate vulnerability research and incident response, and where losing access to a capability mid-incident can itself become a critical security risk. ML4 pairs top-tier cyber performance with open weights and self-deployment, giving organizations both the capability and the autonomy to run advanced security work under their own policies.

> That top score reflects a practical advantage. Several leading closed models, including Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Astra, score near zero on the same test because they refuse to perform the task. Yet defending software often starts with proving that a flaw is real, exactly the kind of work safety filters in closed models can block. This matters even more as threat actors increasingly jailbreak those same models to support offensive cyber activity

fancyfredbot 1 hour ago | parent

Well, with this and Beam people are going to have to stop saying that western open models are dead. This is great news. Anthropic and OpenAI may have a bit more knowledge, talent and compute but they don't have a monopoly.

Investors looking for them to make monopoly profits are going to be disappointed The premium they can extract from consumers for their models will be capped. Tokens are likely to remain close to the cost of compute, a cost which is high but falling fast.

Also, yay Europe! Although the comparison between this and mimo 2.6 is not flattering...

segmondy 1 hour ago | parent

I tried Mistral's last 3 large models, devstral and mistrallarge3 and the numbers were not even benchmaxxed, but just false. the models were so weak and garbage. Let's hope they are telling the truth this time around, we need more alternatives. There mistral-small and original MistralLarge models were awesome, hoping they are back!

igleria 1 hour ago | parent

I thought lechonk motto was just a meme!

pizlonator 1 hour ago | parent

Refreshing to see this.

The pricing ($.68 in/$.07 cached/$2.09 out) makes it much cheaper than Kimi K3, GLM 5.3, and Meta Muse Spark 1.3. That's great!

But also much more expensive than GLM 5.3-flash and Spark 1.3 Contributor (the Meta-takes-your-data pricing of Spark 1.3).

So, I think it would have to be significantly better than GLM 5.3-flash to be worth it. GLM 5.3-flash is already very good.

drbscl 1 hour ago | parent

I still need to evaluate it for my own workloads, but if you trust the benchmarks, seems about on par in quality vs GLM 5.3 Flash

Source https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/mistral-large-4?total-c...

james2doyle 1 hour ago | parent

You are quoting the discount pricing. It is 50% off for the next two weeks. The blog post has the real pricing up front in the card on the right side: https://mistral.ai/news/mistral-large-4/

After that, it will be much closer to GLM 5.3, but you can also get 5.3 in their API! I dont see people really talking about that.

pizlonator 59 minutes ago | parent

Good point.

barrell 54 minutes ago | parent

That is the promotional price, after which it doubles :(

goatley 1 hour ago | parent

Finally, a model small enough to self-host on my 2012 MacBook Air if I don't mind my house reaching room temperature in 2 seconds.

alex_duf 59 minutes ago | parent

You might be missing three 0s on the parameter count, or what am I missing?

I'm assuming you need somewhere 0.5 to 1TB of RAM for the weights only

goatley 14 minutes ago | parent

not to ignore you but how is it possible that I have zero karma

drbscl 1 hour ago | parent

So about 2 or 3 generations behind, just like they were a year ago?

mchusma 50 minutes ago | parent

Something looks off in artificial analysis. Benchmarks aren’t everything, but not even close to the Pareto https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/mistral-large-4?cost=in...

I guess lots of token usage.

andhuman 50 minutes ago | parent

At the end of the blog post we get this nugget.

> The pace of progress from here will be fast. Stay tuned.

retinaros 45 minutes ago | parent

quick question why put GLM 5.3 at 61 while a quick check on DeepSWE 1.1 puts it at 69?

also they forgot muse spark at 75% while claiming they were outshining all US models?

EDM115 43 minutes ago | parent

We actually got Le Chaton Fat before GTA 6

manlymuppet 42 minutes ago | parent

Man, a lot of this discussion sounds like people cheering for the last kid crossing the finish line.

Surely we want competition and Europe involved in that, but at this point I have grown used to either American labs smashing the frontier remarkably fast, or Chinese labs getting way, way closer than you would expect them to.

Mistral’s progress, regrettably, feels much slower. This model doesn’t knock anybody’s socks off. The model is (and I hate to be this harsh) mediocre, and this mediocrity has also arrived months late.

This is a pretty grim prognosis for European AI.

simjnd 36 minutes ago | parent

People were extremely dismissive of chinese models until recently. They went from 1 year behind frontier to 6 months behind frontier to 3 months behind frontier extremely fast.

manlymuppet 9 minutes ago | parent

To be clear I'm not trying to dismiss European AI. I am a proponent of it.

But Chinese models have very much earned their place. The same cannot be said of Europe, so far.

danny_codes 28 minutes ago | parent

Neat. Wait 3 months for the landscape to change entirely.

LLM development is jumpy. It’s hard to extrapolate very far ahead.

manlymuppet 23 minutes ago | parent

I agree.

When Europe does surprise us, I will be the first to commend their progress. But until then, this is where we're at.

porridgeraisin 24 minutes ago | parent

First few models will always be slow improving and worse. The way to improvement is working your way through a gajillion evals [1], finding bugs, gaps, and curating training data (this part involves human design as well as raw inference compute) to fix it. This is very time intensive and can't easily be "done once and then everyone has lesser work to do" since every model is different. Well, one way to accelerate it is to simply have more compute, which mostly openai and anthropic have[2].

This is mistrals first 1T-scale model and I expect the 4th or 5th generation to be close to the best for many purposes.

[1] These evals differ from the public ones like terminal-bench, are sometimes model-specific, need real, diverse usage to actually create, and are held secretly since quality of eval is the first driver behind the next step improvement of a model.

[2] It is not close. This model was trained on less than 4k GPUs, whereas astra used north of 100k GPUs.

manlymuppet 11 minutes ago | parent

Mistral is not that new a player though. How can we give them this much grace when other players like xAI have done more in even less time? I don't think coddling Mistral helps them.

And to the point of scale and training cluster, so what? Not only do Chinese labs have smaller clusters with less empowered GPUs, compute is Mistral's responsibility. You can't take away from other labs just because they fulfill that responsibility better.

gabe-santana 10 minutes ago | parent

Amazing! just tested

karannb 5 minutes ago | parent

From Guillaume

> The RL run behind this preview is still in flight and shows no sign of saturation -- we will release a final version before the end of the month along with the weights of the model.

https://x.com/GuillaumeLample/status/2107461898127954001