115 points signa11 4 days ago 75 comments
techgnosis 1 hour ago | parent
I'm less pessimistic than the author though. There is always room for people who know what they are talking about. Take a deep breath.
kypro 50 minutes ago | parent
derektank 37 minutes ago | parent
sampullman 31 minutes ago | parent
I'm not sure how it plays out in 5 or 10 years, but that's how it is now.
Icathian 31 minutes ago | parent
oxmo456 31 minutes ago | parent
fancyfredbot 28 minutes ago | parent
Knowledge has been available just by asking Google for decades now. The LLM makes it easier but it's a difference of degree not of kind
Until the models are 100% reliable knowledge will be required in order to quickly spot issues and work efficiently with the model to address them.
tomrod 22 minutes ago | parent
It doesn't yet know when I brushed my teeth last, what specific foods in what quantities give me heartburn/indigestion, what that funky smell from my running shoes might be.
It can write pretty good code on a recursive loop when its provided a clear target. It can write better code when it has someone who understand architecture guiding it. It can review code reasonably well as well.
ChatGPT tied to robotics might even be able to do more interesting things!
It does pretty poor on highly specific knowledge where a RAG better supports -- something like Agent Search at GCP or AI Search at Cloudflare. But it can synthesize.
In effect, we've built an amazing library registry and need to up our librarian skills and the skills of people or systems that can use the information the librarian and their system can find.
kphorn 33 minutes ago | parent
jaapz 27 minutes ago | parent
But what will their day to day look like? Meetings?
Previously, I'd have to work days undisturbed to get important stuff out of the door. There was effort involved to reach an elegant solution that fit business need.
Now I'm a meat bag pressing enter on a "recommended" option Claude already figured out was the best approach.
bjornsing 10 minutes ago | parent
And how long can that last? We’re expensive meat bags…
techgnosis 5 minutes ago | parent
atrettel 23 minutes ago | parent
In the short term, I have seen a lot of managers and other higher-ups talk about how we do not need to worry about low-level details anymore. In their minds, we are now all designers and architects, so we do not think about the small implementation details that ultimately do matter for performance and reliability.
People who know what they are talking about worry about all of the details from the big picture down to the small scales. We can still operate using abstractions like designers and architects, but we must know enough to choose the right abstractions that account for the concrete details properly. I've discussed this point earlier this year [1] using the tree swing diagram [2].
plastic-enjoyer 22 minutes ago | parent
righthand 55 minutes ago | parent
I was recently replaced by a young developer and the only thing that keeps me smiling is that they still haven’t fixed the part of the application I raised concerns about (because the young dev decided to write on a fresh non-compatible stack even after my warnings). I hope eventually it leads to their own loss of career since that’s what they did to me. All of that to say that Llms have made people into over confident morons.
devin 48 minutes ago | parent
layla5alive 28 minutes ago | parent
acedTrex 4 minutes ago | parent
cm2012 50 minutes ago | parent
beardbandit 35 minutes ago | parent
That being said, I can't see this entire field existing in five years anymore. I'm hoping for at least two more years, but who knows?
This stuff is coming for all white collar, the barrier to entry is completely gone now. Maybe not the barrier to mastery (yet), but the bottom has fallen out.
tomrod 26 minutes ago | parent
bjornsing 17 minutes ago | parent
tomrod 8 minutes ago | parent
I think you might be viewing AI and humanity as a zero sum experiment. It's really not. Go read some David Brin (Existence is a good start). We don't know all the positive and negative aspects to come, but we aren't in a dark forest situation. Existentially, AI is here, what are we going to do with it?
ofjcihen 25 minutes ago | parent
And I’m wondering if this isn’t the enormous amount of organizational debt from having security second to everything finally coming calling.
IshKebab 11 minutes ago | parent
tomrod 27 minutes ago | parent
I _am_ a craftsman - software, wood, and a few more domains. There is a lot of personal satisfaction I find in woodcraft through the motion and the exercise. I love that this is a luxury hobby instead of a personal necessity. The difference there is that if I take my time on personal necessity where the market isn't paying for it, I may take food out of my kids' mouths or lose the roof over their head. Luxury craft hobbies face only self-imposed pressures.
AI is letting me build similarly. I can continue to craft my Rust and my Python and my Typescript and my Fortran to my heart's content - and those skills help in the day to day - yet I'm also able to compete in the market and build things that were really infeasible before.
DonaldPShimoda 24 minutes ago | parent
The problem with this outlook (not with you personally) is that the increase in accessibility for you comes at a cost, but the way things work these days the cost is not paid by you but by someone else — someone you'll probably never even meet. The cost has been abstracted away from you and foisted onto somebody else against their will. This shows up as people adversely affected by local data centers (increased pollution, higher electricity prices), people displaced in the workforce (author of the article), people of the future who will not understand things because it's easier to skip understanding for now (students, early learners), and so many more.
It's very liberating — so long as you are given the ability to not think about the consequences for these other people, and the abstraction process by which AI companies are providing their services gives you that freedom by design. At the very least, it is something about which you perhaps ought to be wary.
BuckRogers 6 minutes ago | parent
Buttons840 48 minutes ago | parent
It's still valuable to deeply understand parts of a program, but we don't have any tooling that helps us do that. We just have to raw-dog it by thinking really really hard and remembering how all the code connects together.
I want a tool that gives programmers a place to record their thoughts. Developers need a place to draw and write, and also interleave blocks of code that automatically update to match the actual state of the code.
The closest thing I know to this is org-babel, part of Emacs, which allows you to push code blocks out of an org file into an actual source files, or pull them in from actual source files. This is mostly done manually by invoking functions called `tangle` and `detangle`.
I intend to investigate this further in Emacs, since I'm an Emacs user, but Emacs is never going to be the friendly UI we need to make this tooling common.
devin 41 minutes ago | parent
kaashif 40 minutes ago | parent
Now, when someone sends a working PR in, even high quality and well tested, they may actually have no idea how it works.
visarga 33 minutes ago | parent
I do it differently, I focus on better recording what the user wanted, the so-called "user intent". To do this, I record all messages typed by the user since the start of the project, whether 3,000 or 10,000 messages. An LLM can churn through them in 10 minutes and derive a fresh, up-to-date interpretation from the raw data. This can be used to judge whether the implementation has diverged from the intent, or, in other words, to realign the code and tests. The messages the user writes are usually designs or corrections, a very rich, compact signal. If the user struggles with something, it could result in a tool, a skill, updates to the project docs, or new tests.
chrisweekly 11 minutes ago | parent
MHard 31 minutes ago | parent
Could be just defining the methods without filling them but depending on the mood I code more by hand or less.
Terr_ 30 minutes ago | parent
Part of woe is that once you've reviewed, validated, and comprehended a piece... Later gets casually mangled by some other LLM-generated urgent change.
writeslowly 23 minutes ago | parent
mejutoco 17 minutes ago | parent
Sounds, like you already mention with org-mode or similar ones) like literate programming (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Literate_programming) or jupyter notebook.
I think the solution is still code, just at a much higher level of abstraction. Maybe a start is kind of typed ADR or FSM that guides (constrains) the agents. I believe more type checking guarantees will be more and more important for agents.
delichon 45 minutes ago | parent
shadow28 28 minutes ago | parent
hn_throwaway_99 37 minutes ago | parent
I left software and went into violin making and I couldn't be happier (though of course I'm extremely fortunate to have saved up enough in my software career to comfortably make the transition). In violin making a tenth of a millimeter is considered a lot and we endlessly stress over details like the corner shape and the f-holes. And while some of this nitpicking is certainly excessive, it serves more as proof to show that we're extremely careful with the details so that stuff that really matter, like tonal quality and playability, will also get enough detailed focus.
igl 36 minutes ago | parent
ionetan 33 minutes ago | parent
Wrote a post some time ago on how we'd be helped by segmenting and ranking the domains of our systems so we can be deliberate about where we stop short of full automation: https://ljtn.github.io/epiq/blog/cost-of-cognitive-debt.html
cseleborg 16 minutes ago | parent
sean2d 31 minutes ago | parent
advael 7 minutes ago | parent
So as market pressure goes, that leaves employers. I do see the occasional oddball project that resists this wave, but "doing things correctly even if it takes longer" is not a value you're really allowed to have in an economy where the make or break factor for your business is usually getting investment capital, and capital is, as a population, probably the most all-in on LLMs of anyone, to the point where I believe they'd push for vibecoding even in instances where they can't find numbers that justify doing so.
A ton of people not in tech hate genAI so much that they say they'll, for example, not purchase a game if they know someone used it for any part of it, and yell about it online, and such, but games are pretty much the only consumer-facing software people make purchasing decisions about, so maybe that moves a needle there, but gamers failed to rally against microtransactions, DLC piecemeal replacing game dev, or even things like always-on DRM or revoking purchases that literally remove their ability to play their games, so I doubt that's going to materialize a change in something that could be more easily obfuscated in response to this pressure like the provenance of the software
Market pressures require at least a somewhat free market, and the overall american market for software is drastically distorted by various oligopolies that by and large has a vested interest in LLMs (and specifically the corporate black box ones) being used for as much as possible
cseleborg 7 minutes ago | parent
kphorn 30 minutes ago | parent
xerox13ster 24 minutes ago | parent
Offering hobbies, which require ppl to already be supporting themselves, is like a slap in the face.
This is like telling a coal miner that if they enjoyed the work they did in their career, they can go digging tunnels in chalk cliffs after renewable energy destroys the demand for coal.
acedTrex 29 minutes ago | parent
serf 25 minutes ago | parent
cool to see it come full circle and see another person thrown into the industry by the work of another forum member.
isityettime 23 minutes ago | parent
What I think we're likely to witness here, or at least what AI investors ultimately are hoping to see happen, is the displacement of code as we know it (often already sorely lacking in quality and craft) not by more of the same varieties of code, but a massive profusion of shittier, more homogenous code. It won't have to win by being better; it'll be able to do that by being cheaper alone. And we're frankly kidding ourselves if we think that doesn't mean a profound deskilling and potentially deprofessionalization across the whole class.
plastic-enjoyer 6 minutes ago | parent
I don't think comparing it to the industrial revolution is appropriate, as the political and social conditions were completely different. I think you can compare the disruption that is introduced by artificial intelligence more with the deindustrialization of regions such as the Ruhrgebiet in Germany.
pwdisswordfishq 23 minutes ago | parent
Thanks for making me feel old
bob1029 20 minutes ago | parent
LLMs are not very good at performance issues unless you walk into it with a clear idea of the likely root cause and the bigger picture regarding actual hardware and desired customer experiences.
"Please make the code go faster"
vs
"I am noticing what appears to be contention between threads under workload A, B & C, but not with workload D".
These are completely different universes of capability and outcomes.
Even if an LLM can fight its way to the answer on its own, you can achieve a specific desired result much faster and with significantly lower risk if you are genuinely an expert.
I've seen a concrete example of this recently. I profiled the client's product "the hard way" and arrived at a change to a single line of code that would eliminate a mutex issue. One of the client's developers used the LLM and wound up with a change set that touched hundreds of files, but otherwise achieved approximately the same performance fix. The other developer even had my hint that it was a single file change and couldn't figure out how to do this despite prompting a leading edge model regarding this exact possibility over and over.
Taste and aesthetics apply to absolutely everything. Not just UI/UX design. Perhaps it is even more important that we care about the things that are invisible to the customer. It is certainly easier to forget about them or treat them like they don't matter as much.
sowhat1 17 minutes ago | parent
You’re probably limiting the frontier models by being specific.
progval 12 minutes ago | parent
mjr00 12 minutes ago | parent
Pointing a frontier model to a 10 or 100MLoC codebase and saying "make this code fast, make no mistakes" doesn't work. As an experiment I recently tried this with a relative small (500KLoC) codebase and it got stuck on believing that the primary cause of slowdown was the database not using a connection pool. (Which was completely irrelevant for this specific code.)
bob1029 8 minutes ago | parent
vladms 7 minutes ago | parent
I do feel there is a limit to LLM-s today. I did not try, but I doubt it will work if I would tell it "make me a web browser that is bug free, perfectly secure, works as efficient as possible on my architecture and has best UX for me personally".
Knowing where that limit is, is as hard as it always was knowing how fast a team of engineers was going to do a project.
intended 3 minutes ago | parent
AlienRobot 7 minutes ago | parent
bourbonproof 18 minutes ago | parent
Earw0rm 16 minutes ago | parent
I'm lucky though - as a hybrid engineer/manager, I've been able to lean away from the former and into the latter.
And I've come to notice that humans doing agentic work seem to need more emotional support per unit effort than those doing traditional engineering.
So there are opportunities there. I don't want to spend a second longer than I have to prompting machines - there is zero dopamine loop in that for me, I get more doing housework and at least that makes my wife happy - but I'm happy to support a few other humans engaged in that kind of work.
It's sad though. I used to love dreaming intricate machines into existence and then watching them come to "life", or at least actually start working. That dream seems dead for now, I hope it comes back but I won't hold my breath.
simianwords 15 minutes ago | parent
A good programmer or a good knowledge worker knows how to work with lossy details.
ctoth 14 minutes ago | parent
Isn't this whole post seeking...recognition? I am so confused at the metahypocrisy here. Why is it valid to want recognition for something when you do it, but not when someone who uses an LLM does it?
andruby 11 minutes ago | parent
Training a year, and running a marathon feels more worthy of recognition than driving 42km in a car from the start to the finish.
While I don't empathize with the defeatist tone of the post. I do empathize with this part.
ctoth 7 minutes ago | parent
simianwords 7 minutes ago | parent
ex: getting a big seed round from a VC for your start up still may show that your parents had connections.
but marathons have this grindability and somewhat stable feedback loop.
claykkari 10 minutes ago | parent
dilja 6 minutes ago | parent
LLMs are becoming remarkably competent at both of these skills. Not quite at expert levels yet but I expect it won't be long until this happens. I'm astounded at what they can do already, with the benefit of relentless, persistent effort on top of this.
How I've been using LLMs is twofold. Firstly, using chat mode to the effect of having technical documentation to converse with. Secondly, using agentic mode to develop tooling to help me with reverse engineering. This includes things like one-off scripts to analyse complex trees of structures, to modules that use the API of my own framework I've developed, to prototype how I might want to extend it. I then write the final code myself in my own style, using the LLM prototype as a rough reference.
For now I think I've got a decent balance between using the LLM as a useful timesaving tool and understanding things myself. I feel I have to draw a line around there, otherwise I'm babysitting a black box, which almost anyone can do.
intended 6 minutes ago | parent
The death of every sub culture in a sentence.
coef2 4 minutes ago | parent
ajrouvoet 3 minutes ago | parent
I’m working intensively with LLMs to find out what they can and cannot do and for all the capabilities in there they remain terrible at compressing functionality into few concepts and as a result they produce incoherent (read Fred Brooks on coherent design!), failure-prone products. In other words: I expect that there will be good demand for people who refuse to let code grow beyond something they can keep in their head, even though the means by which one accomplishes this might be different than what you do now.
Hope there is some solace in there.