46 points hardmaru 2 hours ago 15 comments
codethief 1 hour ago | parent
Sounds like we're still on track for https://ai-2027.com, for better or for worse.
solenoid0937 1 hour ago | parent
Probably a bit ahead of it.
Aboutplants 51 minutes ago | parent
Pretty amazingly accurate
throwawayy6767 44 minutes ago | parent
Are we reading the same website? The predictions for China are completely fantastical - they are not falling behind and if anything the gap is narrowing, and they aren't stealing the weights because they don't need to (distilling is enough). Also the CDZ stuff is just fanfiction at this point.
easterncalculus 23 minutes ago | parent
No matter what happens, people just blindly claim this nonsense is still accurate. We could have AI halt tomorrow and people on Hacker News would still claim AI 2027 is on track.
zamalek 14 minutes ago | parent
Five years past the flare
a bottle drifts with its note
AI singularity next year
thorum 3 minutes ago | parent
Distillation only lets you keep pace with released models. By all indication, OpenAI/Anthropic’s unreleased internal models are so far ahead of Astra/Fable and every other lab that the chance of anyone else catching up is rapidly closing.
throwyonion 59 minutes ago | parent
Rock smart, but rock make mistake. Caveman must correct all the time. Caveman think: let rock argue with itself. Caveman make ring of rocks. Now rock think self correct. But mammoth not cooked somehow? Most Oddisean moment.
bitwize 31 minutes ago | parent
if grug think complexity demon cause trouble before... shiny-rock grugs say "hold my grug-grog". now programming consist of: summon HUGE complexity demon, trap in magic circle (called "harness"), tell IT to write code. only way to make shiny rock with code in today's economy.
adtac 18 minutes ago | parent
grug realise grug also rely on "harness" for work? grug just call it by other names: coffee, chair, desk, ubuntu, mechanical keyboard, github
jsemrau 32 minutes ago | parent
If Apple's "Intelligence" paper has shown one thing is that never do something in the LLM that can also be done recursive and deterministic.