182 points jpmulhausen 2 hours ago 80 comments
shoobiedoo 1 hour ago | parent
morninglight 1 hour ago | parent
gruez 1 hour ago | parent
And that prediction would have been dead wrong for much of the past 4 decades, except for the post pandemic inflation surge, but that's the exception that proves the rule. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
insane_dreamer 1 hour ago | parent
direwolf20 1 hour ago | parent
The Dow, the Dow right now
Is over fifty thou
I don't know why you're laughing
That's what we should be talking abou
The Dow, the Dow right now
S&P is almost seven thou
The American people need to know this,
Need to know, how is the Dow?
Fripplebubby 1 hour ago | parent
jdw64 1 hour ago | parent
But this site looks like GPT made it, doesn't it? I can see GPT's characteristic green button UI and beige color scheme. GPT 6.1 tends to use a green-toned UI.
GenerWork 1 hour ago | parent
batshit_beaver 1 hour ago | parent
insane_dreamer 1 hour ago | parent
no, not really
tttttbbbkufchib 1 hour ago | parent
jdw64 1 hour ago | parent
What I mean by an emerging industry is one that requires little capital and has few entrenched players—in the end, an industry where new entrants can compete with small initial capital. That's how I'd redefine it.
Because in the IT boom era, there were many technological opportunities. The boss who hired me was one example. But in the case of industrial robot manufacturing, the existing hardware supply chain is, by and large, the one investing.
In the end, what I want to say comes down to this: there are fewer industries open to new entrants.
Because in the IT boom and the construction boom, there were markets that needed less capital than you'd think in the early days. In subcontracting, for instance, you could enter with relatively little capital. But in today's technologically advanced industries, initial capital requirements are far higher. So in the past, even within the same category of industry, there clearly existed sub-markets you could participate in with comparatively little initial capital.
For example, in the old IT industry, my seniors 20 years ago said it took surprisingly little capital. But today's market isn't like that. I think this is a problem that arises as industries become more advanced.
There's a paper I read some time ago arguing that as an industry becomes more advanced, the knowledge and resources required to make a product increase.[1] [1]https://www.nber.org/papers/w27787
oefrha 1 hour ago | parent
wyre 1 hour ago | parent
gruez 1 hour ago | parent
wyre 17 minutes ago | parent
ddeck 1 hour ago | parent
rootusrootus 1 hour ago | parent
0000000000100 1 hour ago | parent
And I'm not even sure where the part is on the site detailing this '23% fall' mentioned in the title is. Cause there certainly isn't any historical data provided on the page...
slopinthebag 1 hour ago | parent
DaSHacka 1 hour ago | parent
I'm not exactly sure what's going to happen in the future, but I'm sure that it's going to be wildly different from the current status quo in a number of countries.
AnthonyMouse 43 minutes ago | parent
This is how the two party system evolved to sustain the status quo. When people are mad about something, divide the people into two parties and have them each demand a different solution while demonizing the solution of the other party, so that their votes cancel out and then nothing changes.
Extra points if you can get them to demand something unnecessarily polarizing, disproportionate or simplistic when there are better solutions available, because then you can get them to fight against the moderates too.
Notice also that when you point this out to a partisan, they have a tendency to violently agree and then immediately mischaracterize the problem as being that the other party is bad and wrong and the solution is to have everybody do their party's thing.
prewett 54 minutes ago | parent
The American Revolution wasn't radical change from the British system, but thoughtful improvements on it. The French Revolution, and the Communist revolutions were all disasters. The slave revolt in Haiti has produced long-term poor results compared to the Dominican Republic. The American occupation of Japan is arguable, but given that they kept the emperor and one party was in power for the next 50+ years just like before, I have some doubts.
etothepii 1 hour ago | parent
jeron 1 hour ago | parent
cbhl 1 hour ago | parent
It might be worth just downloading the data from the Fed yourself and having the coding harness of your choice build whatever data visualization you want:
eddythompson80 51 minutes ago | parent
robertclaus 1 hour ago | parent
anubistheta 1 hour ago | parent
But I don't see data for 2022 on the page? I searched for "2022" and found nothing?
What makes it odd to me is that real median incomes for both individuals and households rose 6.2% over that period. That includes all people, but what I can find specifically on younger people is even more optimistic.
https://fortune.com/2026/09/22/gen-z-wealth-income-vs-boomer...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/mehoinusa672n# https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N
Edit: someone linked the data below. Seems like 2022 was an outlier. All numbers in 2025 dollars. 2019 17.8k 2022 42.7k 2025 32.8k
So from 2019 to 2025, median net wealth for people under 35 increased by 84%.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scf/dataviz/scf/chart...
rich_sasha 1 hour ago | parent
bwhiting2356 1 hour ago | parent
autoexec 53 minutes ago | parent
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/04/nx-s1-5760948/high-housing-co...
https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/04/house-sharing-is-not-just-f...
brailsafe 58 minutes ago | parent
The pandemic created a ton of wealth for whomever would've had the most money in the market at that time and the most stability, to the point where there's basically no chance anyone else reaching those same ages after the pandemic could catch up without some miracle. Ya it's still better in real dollars than 2019 by a significant amount, but it would need to be even more significant for it to be optimistic, imo.
Edit: Looking at the The Fed chart you posted a bit further, there hasn't been a similar relative drop in any other 3 year period from 1989 onward. The closest period overall would be 2004-2010, and secondly 1995-1998. That's... pretty dramatic
jongjong 1 hour ago | parent
That's $7k per year, which they have to save from the surplus after paying their rents, groceries, healthcare, university debts and everything else.
brooke2k 1 hour ago | parent
adgjlsfhk1 1 hour ago | parent
hn_throwaway_99 1 hour ago | parent
The US Census Bureau says 49.2% of adults 30-34 are homeowners in the US, so clearly many people are figuring out how to save and invest.
locusofself 1 hour ago | parent
NDlurker 1 hour ago | parent
jongjong 41 minutes ago | parent
I got pretty lucky with one of the (EdTech) startups I was early employee at giving me shares and it grew from nothing to over 1 million active paid subscriptions. Also, I joined a crypto project which rose to $4 billion valuation (joined at like $300 million valuation) but I was only able to get about $30k out of that in spite of hard hustling and leading one of the most important teams. Literally I put pressure on them to get a raise for 1 year and eventually had to quit to show I was serious... Then the founders basically sabotaged me by spreading lies about me. Then 3 years later, one of the founders fled to Dubai.
I self-taught myself coding at 14 and have been working non-stop including nights and weekends and saving everything I could.
My net worth now is only $80k liquid at 36 years old. $130k if you include my illiquid retirement fund. So to me, $70k at 33 on a median income looks incredible. I'm not based in the US though. Maybe it's easier over there.
xlayn 1 hour ago | parent
And I say only because it's a lot of money, and it's not a lot of money... if you have to pay rent, or mortgage payments, or car payments... car will be reposesed, credit score will go south really fast, and everything is tied to the credit score, so they know how low they can drop the ball and you will still accept because you are in need.
I want you to remember, the american dream... one person working as a mail man can bring food to the table, pay the mortgage while the wife raise the kids and kids go to school, you retire 40 years later with social security giving you enough for the basics...
Then this is for someone with university debt... so this is the case for someone with a title... what's the situation for the other unlucky 95% of america?
bonoboTP 56 minutes ago | parent
theoldlove 44 minutes ago | parent
bonoboTP 4 minutes ago | parent
autoexec 28 minutes ago | parent
I doubt most of Western Europe would agree with you. They seem to feel a lot happier and healthier. They have better social mobility, and less household debt.
I don't think the problem is growing expectations. Being able to own a home and affordably raise a family are extremely old expectations. If anything, people seem to be forced into compromising more and more.
bonoboTP 1 minute ago | parent
ianm218 1 hour ago | parent
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/median-weekly-earnings-by-...
xlayn 1 hour ago | parent
THEN it will go quite far
quite far to teach you you have been played out of your youth and now you are poor
consensus1 1 hour ago | parent
irjustin 1 hour ago | parent
bad_haircut72 1 hour ago | parent
qdog 1 hour ago | parent
subtextminer 1 hour ago | parent
ph4rsikal 1 hour ago | parent
thatonehack 39 minutes ago | parent