51 points voxleone 37 minutes ago 8 comments

dnlgrmm 15 minutes ago | parent

Beautifully shows how most predictions that extrapolate from past data are too simplistic. We're approaching peak global population and almost all industrialized nations are more worried about population decline than overpopulation these days. Which is why I'm not worried about superintelligence or data centers in space.

gchamonlive 9 minutes ago | parent

[delayed]

sandworm101 9 minutes ago | parent

>>> or data centers in space.

I am about as worried about data centers in space as I am about jetpacks disrupting the flying car market.

geraneum 3 minutes ago | parent

> I'm not worried about superintelligence or data centers in space.

null hypothesis extrapolation from past data

scrumper 3 minutes ago | parent

Worried in economic terms though, because the foundation of that is an assumption of continuing growth?

I try to understand this worrying mindset but it still seems like short-term thinking. Essentially all of our problems are caused by excessive population - climate change is caused by energy usage which is too high because there are too many people. Wars, migration, resource depletion, hunger, water scarcity, all of it. So we (as in, human civilization) short-term think our way into rationalizing that it'll be ok because technology will provide a solution and we don't need to make any real changes.

Now the population trend looks like it's about to reverse and we can finally see a way to a possible future without scarcity, and we short-term think that into being a problem because we might find it difficult to afford to care for our elderly anymore. But we can! The economic engine will never be more powerful than it is now: so exploit it, use it to solve the pain of population contraction while we adjust our economic and productive structures so they can serve us effectively in a world where growth isn't purely consumptive.

I'm sure this is all hopelessly naive.

trusche 14 minutes ago | parent

Wrong premise, but otherwise feels about right.

chiph 7 minutes ago | parent

Overpopulation was a big topic in the early 1970's, with competing dire predictions.

If you haven't watched it, Soylent Green with Edward G Robinson and Charlton Heston is an illustration of this (no spoilers please!) It was based on Harry Harrison's novel Make Room, Make Room where population growth was out of control, and human life was worth so little that the police used mechanical scoops to clear rioters from the streets.

And then on the other side, we have Blade Runner where Earth's population is declining because of off-world colonization and replicants are created for labor.

madduci 5 minutes ago | parent

Another kind of Doomsday happened instead: the Outlook Outage, blocking companies on a global scale by sending/receiving emails