YHK - yet another hacker news clone

Impacts short term rates, bond market controls longer term rates (10Y-30Y). Bond market prices in inflation forecasts regardless of what the Fed does from a pricing and yield optimization perspective, so inflation data reporting goes directly into bond market movements.

It's a great question. The Fed cannot print more oil, and so any efforts to reduce energy inflation with interest rates is going to be futile. Fiscal policy must step in (Congress) to both stabilize the oil market and accelerate our transition off of oil (which would prevent energy inflation in the future).

Fundamentally, due to structural demographics, we have arrived at a capital shortage period after a long capital surplus period [1]; there will be, for long into the future, more projects chasing a shrinking supply of capital. This will continue to push interest rates up, which will also drive asset prices down (real estate, private equity, etc).

Tangentially, about a year ago, I predicted that the Fed could beat on the economy all it wants with higher rates and this would not cause mass unemployment, because the world is rapidly aging and how fast workers are retiring out of the labor force [2]. This thesis appears to have been proven accurate, but more time is required to make the thesis more durable.

[1] https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-s...

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44392820